Citi raises corn, soybean, wheat targets as Super El Niño intensifies

Citigroup ↘ 2.48% raised its price targets for corn, soybeans and wheat on Tuesday, citing a strengthening Super El Niño as its highest-conviction agricultural risk heading into late 2026 and early 2027. The move came as corn futures separately surged to a three-year high amid dry conditions and geopolitical disruptions.

New Price Targets

The bank lifted its three-month corn price target to $5.40 per bushel and its 12-month forecast to $5.90 per bushel. For soybeans, Citi raised its three-month target to $12.75 per bushel after its previous forecast was reached, with a 12-month target of $13.25. Wheat forecasts were revised to $7.25 per bushel over three months and $7.75 over 12 months.finance.yahoo+1

Citi's assessment follows NOAA's August 2026 update, which assigns a greater than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño event and a 69% probability that conditions during October through December will surpass the strength of every El Niño episode recorded since 1950. The bank said current market pricing reflects only a portion of the potential downside risks to global agricultural production based on its new Production-at-Risk framework.investing+1

Corn Hits Three-Year High

Separately, corn futures hit $5.2425 per bushel on Tuesday, the highest level in approximately three years, before stabilizing around $5.18. The CME Group ↗ 2.27% noted on Sunday that December corn contracts surged to new contract highs after Pro Farmer crop tour estimates indicated a potential six-year low in yields.dailysabah+1

Corn has risen more than 11% since the end of July and more than 17% since the end of December 2025, according to Anadolu Agency. Hot and dry weather in U.S. corn-producing regions, adverse conditions in Europe and ongoing grain shipment disruptions related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have fueled concerns over global supply.dailysabah

Multiple Risk Factors Converge

Citi identified palm oil, robusta coffee, rice, sugar, cocoa and Australian wheat as the agricultural commodities facing the greatest weather-related exposure, with risks concentrated across Australia, India, Southeast Asia and parts of Brazil. A strong El Niño threatening palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia could increase demand for soybean oil as a substitute, adding further upward pressure to soybean prices.finance.yahoo+1

Wheat remains the grain most exposed to the combination of weather and geopolitical risks, according to Citi, with hot and dry conditions across Europe already reducing production estimates while Black Sea supply uncertainty persists. Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodities expert, told Anadolu Agency that "El Niño will continue until the beginning of next year, and if oil remains at these levels, we may see even more upward movements in corn."dailysabah+1