Brent dips below $100 as Gulf oil exports rebound

Brent crude fell below $$100 a barrel on Tuesday, October 6. Shipping data showed Gulf oil exports climbing back toward pre-war levels, and a Group of Seven agreement to release emergency reserves added barrels to the market. Brent fell more than 1% to trade near $$98.58, Reuters reported. Investing.com put Brent down 1.9% at $$98.45 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate down 1.9% at $$87.74.finance.yahoo+1

Prices had edged up earlier in Asian trading, when Brent briefly sat at $$100.59. They turned lower as investors set the recovering supply picture against continued attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.english.nv+1

Exports recover, reserves released

Kpler shipping data showed that Gulf exporters beat pre-war export levels on about half the days in September. Reuters reported that oil shipments from Gulf countries other than Iran rose to more than 81% of pre-war levels last month. Most of the gain came from Saudi Arabia, whose exports recovered even though its oil infrastructure has been attacked. Iran's exports fell to zero because of the U.S. blockade.finance.yahoo+1

PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans said Saudi Arabia has raised exports to 6 million barrels per day, its 2025 monthly average, citing Kpler. The kingdom moved the oil through ship-to-ship transfers and other routes. Evans said Saudi Arabia's unexpected cut to its November selling price for Asian buyers was meant to offset record freight rates. According to LSEG data, chartering a supertanker from the Gulf to China cost $$1.2 million a day as of Friday, compared with $$80,000 a year earlier.rigzone

Last week, G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from strategic reserves. They also pledged not to restrict energy exports, after pressure from President Donald Trump.english.nv

Risk premium persists

Analysts said a full recovery is still a long way off. "It is still too early to speak of a full normalization of supplies," said Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova. She noted that attacks on tankers around Hormuz have increased in recent days. Evans said the reported return to pre-war export volumes is likely to be "adjusted accordingly to the downside" as the attacks pile up.english.nv+1

Fitch Solutions unit BMI now expects no deal to reopen the strait before the first quarter of 2027. It raised its Brent forecast to an average of $$107 in the fourth quarter of this year and $$112 in the first quarter of 2027.rigzone

Markets take relief

The drop in crude helped U.S. stock futures rise and pushed Treasury yields down from multi-year highs. It also eased some worries about energy-driven inflation, though traders still largely expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December.reuters+1

"If exports improve and refinery bottlenecks ease, Brent could struggle to hold above $100," said Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets. "If shipping disruption or refinery damage worsens, the market could quickly rebuild a stronger risk premium."rigzone