Brazilians vote in tight Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro runoff

Brazilians voted on Sunday, October 25, in a presidential runoff between leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump. Final polls show the two virtually tied. If Bolsonaro wins, Latin America's most populous country and largest economy would turn to the right, in a year when Trump allies have also won in Chile, Peru and Colombia.apnews.com+1

Polls opened at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. Brasilia time (2000 GMT) in most of the country. Brazil votes entirely on electronic machines, so the top electoral court usually publishes counts within hours. After voting in Rio de Janeiro, Bolsonaro urged supporters to turn out "come rain or shine." Lula was due to vote in São Bernardo do Campo, near São Paulo.ca.news.yahoo.com+1

A Dead Heat After an Upset

Bolsonaro beat the polls in the October 4 first round, winning 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%. His lead has shrunk since then. Datafolha's final poll, released Thursday, had the two tied at 50% each. Most other recent surveys are within their margins of error. History favors the senator, since no candidate has ever won a runoff after finishing second in the first round.newsweek.com+1

"If Lula were to win, it would be the most important electoral come back in the history of Brazil," said Patricio Navia of New York University. He called turnout the wild card. More than 33 million of Brazil's nearly 160 million registered voters did not vote in the first round.apnews.com+1

Washington's Shadow

The race has been dominated by corruption scandals, worries about the economy and accusations of U.S. meddling, which Washington denies. It has also been shaped by the 2025 conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father, for plotting a coup in 2022. Flávio has promised to free his father if he is elected. Trump called the case a "witch hunt" and put a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025. That tariff was later reduced, but he imposed new levies this year. On Saturday, Reuters reported on an effort inside the State Department to help return the Bolsonaros to power.ca.news.yahoo.com

Lula calls the tariffs bullying. He has struggled to win over voters dealing with high living costs and household debt, even though inequality and unemployment have fallen. Bolsonaro has campaigned on cost-of-living worries and a tough line on crime.ca.news.yahoo.com

The campaign ended with a heated TV Globo debate on Friday. Bolsonaro said Lula gives with one hand and "takes away with nine fingers," referring to the finger Lula lost in a factory accident. He later apologized. "I don't expect even the final debate to have a decisive impact," said Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.newsweek.com