ASML beats forecasts as cooling U.S. inflation lifts markets

ASML ↘ 6.55%, Europe's most valuable company and the world's largest supplier of chipmaking equipment, beat revenue expectations in its second-quarter 2026 earnings report released Wednesday morning, sending Nasdaq futures higher and reinforcing confidence in the artificial intelligence trade.live.euronext+1

The results landed alongside a cooler-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index report for June, which showed headline inflation fell 0.4% on the month — its first decline since the COVID-19 pandemic — bringing the annual rate down to 3.5%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose as much as 0.8% in pre-market trading as investors digested the dual catalysts.reuters+3

Inflation Relief Eases Rate-Hike Fears

The CPI report, published Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, undercut economists' expectations on all fronts. The consensus forecast surveyed by Dow Jones had called for a 0.2% monthly decline and an annual rate of 3.8%. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, was flat for the month, pulling the year-over-year rate to 2.6%.bls+1

"For market bulls this is even better than Goldilocks could have imagined," J.P. Morgan JPMorgan Chase & Co. ↘ 1.90% analysts wrote in a client note, according to Reuters. "This print should remove any fears over a July rate hike and may assuage fears on September, too."live.euronext

Market pricing for a U.S. interest rate hike in July halved to 16% following the report. However, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh tempered enthusiasm by telling Congress that "one data point was not enough to declare victory over inflation."reuters+1

AI Sentiment Buoyed, but Nerves Linger

ASML's earnings beat gave a fresh lift to AI-linked stocks after a period of mounting volatility around the trade. The Dutch chip-equipment maker had guided for Q2 revenue between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion, and consensus estimates pointed to approximately €8.87 billion.asml+1

Still, the session was not without caution. IBM International Business Machines Corporation ↘ 0.18% shares dropped roughly 25% on Tuesday after the company's revenue forecast disappointed, underscoring how punishing markets have become toward AI-adjacent firms that fail to deliver.live.euronext

"AI uncertainty is actually the highest of all the categories of uncertainty at the moment, and the sharp stock market reactions that you're seeing to results reflect that," said Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management.live.euronext

Broader Market Picture

South Korea's Kospi surged 6% on Wednesday, while Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1%. S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1%. Earnings from Morgan Stanley ↘ 3.00%, BlackRock ↘ 2.44%, and Johnson & Johnson ↘ 0.73% are also due before the U.S. opening bell Wednesday, keeping investor attention squarely on corporate results.reuters+1