Anthropic filing splits Wall Street over $2 trillion value

Anthropic's first public look at its finances has started an argument on Wall Street over whether the maker of Claude is worth as much as $2 trillion. The company filed on Monday, October 26, for a Nasdaq ↘ 0.34% listing under the ticker ANT. The filing set no offering price or share count. Media reports have put the target valuation between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion. Reuters has reported the offering could raise $100 billion or more.itweb.co.za+2

The bull case

Anthropic's revenue grew about fourteenfold in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier, reaching $16.3 billion. The company also reported its first positive operating cash flow, at $3.9 billion. It posted $974 million in operating income in the June quarter, and no single customer made up more than 10% of revenue. It also holds about $112 billion in cash. Kepler said the "cost side has started to bend." AG Dillon & Company argued that "over-building is now the correct error to make". Some investors expect the stock could climb to a $2.4 trillion market value once it starts trading.semafor.com+2

The bear case

The company reported an $80.7 billion net loss for the first half of the year, mostly from a non-cash charge tied to convertible financing. The S-1 shows more than $800 billion committed to computing contracts. Growth is also slowing. Third-quarter revenue rose 45% from the prior quarter, compared with 141% in the second quarter, and some investors are now discussing a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $1.7 trillion. New Constructs called the deal "an unprecedented test of investor gullibility." The firm said a $2 trillion valuation would require about $3.6 trillion in revenue by 2035.businessinsider.com+3

"Big Short" investor Michael Burry told his Substack subscribers, "There is a lot here but nothing that changes my view." He argued that the S-1, which mostly covers data through June 30, misses changes in the developer market and shows revenue "slowing".africa.businessinsider.com

Ripple effects for AI stocks

CNBC's Jim Cramer warned that the offering could "suck a massive amount of money away from the rest of the group." He also said a successful debut "will give investors much more confidence that the AI data center theme has legs". Cramer said cloud growth at Amazon Amazon.com, Inc. ↗ 1.61% and Alphabet ↗ 0.84% is "hostage to Anthropic." Meta Platforms ↘ 1.64% launched $35 billion in stock offerings on the same day Anthropic filed. Anthropic could start marketing the IPO as soon as the week of November 9.tikr.com

Retail investors are split as well. Walid Diab, an investor in the United Arab Emirates, summed up his plan as "Tactical short-term entry, long-term wait-and-see." He expects to sell most of his shares soon after the debut.businessinsider.com