CSIS: Ukraine war casualties top 2 million since 2022

Combined Russian and Ukrainian military casualties have surpassed 2 million since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to a new study released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Tuesday. The report, authored by CSIS analysts Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe, presents what researchers call an "astounding" toll that has no parallel among major powers since World War II.

Russia Bears the Heavier Burden

According to the CSIS estimates, Russian forces suffered approximately 1.4 million battlefield casualties — killed, wounded, and missing — between February 2022 and June 2026, with between 400,000 and 450,000 fatalities during that period. The study notes that Russian fatalities in Ukraine are "more than four times" greater than all U.S. military deaths in all wars combined since World War II, and more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian fatalities in all conflicts combined over the same period.linkedin.com+1

The report finds that Russia's monthly casualty rates of between 30,000 and 34,000 in 2026 have likely exceeded its recruitment rates of approximately 27,000 new soldiers per month. The Russia-to-Ukraine casualty ratio has risen to nearly 8:1 in the first half of 2026, up from between 2:1 and 3:1 for much of the war, driven largely by Ukraine's use of AI-enabled drones.csis.org

Ukraine's Toll and a Shifting Battlefield

Ukrainian forces have suffered between 525,000 and 625,000 casualties and between 125,000 and 150,000 fatalities over the same period. While smaller in absolute terms, the losses remain devastating for a country with a far smaller population than Russia.csis.org

The study also documents a shift in battlefield momentum. Russia's territorial control in Ukraine shrank in the spring of 2026, with a net loss of roughly 400 square kilometers in April and May — the first monthly net losses since August 2024. Russian advances have slowed to between 50 and 90 meters per day along the most active fronts, a pace comparable to the Battle of the Somme in World War I.csis.org

Implications for Ending the War

Despite the mounting costs, the report warns that Putin has shown no public indication of slowing down. The study argues that the war heavily favors the defender, frustrating Russian offensives but also constraining Ukrainian counterattacks. CSIS researchers conclude that the moment is "ripe for a pressure campaign" targeting Russia's economy, urging the United States and Europe to increase sanctions enforcement and military aid to Ukraine.csis.org

"The bitter irony of the Ukraine war is that despite Russia's battlefield challenges and economic vulnerabilities, the United States and Europe have failed to fully wield economic or military pressure," the report states.csis.org