Climate change made West Africa floods five times more likely, study finds

Human-induced climate change made the extreme rainfall that caused devastating floods across West Africa's coast in June approximately five times more likely than it would have been in pre-industrial times, according to a study released this week by the World Weather Attribution group.

A Region in Crisis

Between June 20 and 22, the coastal regions bordering the Gulf of Guinea — particularly Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, and Nigeria — experienced widespread flooding after intense rainfall dumped more than 140 mm in less than 24 hours in several locations. The floods killed nearly 100 people across Ghana, Togo, and Côte d'Ivoire, with Côte d'Ivoire recording 59 deaths, including 20 in a single flood-prone suburb of Abidjan, while Ghana confirmed at least 15 deaths and more than 38,000 people displaced.ghana.un+2

According to the United Nations, historical records indicate rainfall intensity increased by up to 23%, while climate models estimate at least a 4% increase, making the event both more severe and more frequent. The WWA study warned that such intense three-day rainfall events, once considered rare, are now expected every two to four years in the region.rte+1

Urbanization Amplifies Risk

The researchers pointed to rapid urbanization and expansion into floodplains as factors that have amplified disaster risk along the Gulf of Guinea coast. As populations grow in low-lying coastal areas, the combination of more intense rainfall and inadequate drainage infrastructure creates conditions for recurring catastrophe.worldweatherattribution

Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, said in response to the findings: "There's nothing normal about these devastating floods; the climate crisis has made them more likely, driven by humanity burning vast amounts of oil, coal and gas. What was once rare is becoming increasingly frequent, severe and deadly due to global heating".ghana.un

A Warning for the Future

The study adds to a growing body of WWA research linking specific extreme weather events to climate change. The group has already published attribution studies on European heatwaves, South Asian pre-monsoon heat, and other disasters in 2026 alone. For West Africa, the message is stark: without reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in flood preparedness, coastal communities face a future where today's disasters become routine.worldweatherattribution