Strait of Hormuz shipping grinds to near halt after second night of US strikes on Iran

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a near standstill on Thursday after the United States struck Iran for a second consecutive night, with ship-tracking data showing only two large vessels transiting the world's most critical energy chokepoint.tass+2

Observable vessel movements largely occurred along an Iran-approved route near the waterway's northern shore, while the U.S.-supported Omani corridor remained quiet, according to Bloomberg. Only 14 commodity carriers crossed the strait on Wednesday, less than half the pre-escalation average of 34 vessels per day. The U.N.'s International Maritime Organization said sailings through Hormuz should be avoided "as long as the safety and security of crews cannot be assured".insurancejournal+3

Escalation Derails Fragile Ceasefire

The shipping collapse followed a rapid escalation that began on Monday when Iran's Revolutionary Guards fired missiles at commercial ships in the strait, damaging at least three tankers. The United States responded on Tuesday by striking more than 80 Iranian military targets and revoking a license that had allowed Iran to sell oil on global markets since late June. President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire "over" during a NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday, and the U.S. launched a second wave of strikes overnight into Thursday, hitting port facilities in Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, and other coastal cities. Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.npr+6

Insurance Costs Surge, Oil Prices Spike

War insurers have advised shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages, with premiums rising toward 3 percent of a vessel's value, up from 2 percent late last week. Broker Howden Re characterized the combined effect of Red Sea disruption in 2024–25 and Hormuz tensions in 2026 as "a permanent structural repricing" of marine war risk rather than a temporary spike.reuters+1

Crude oil prices surged roughly 7 percent on Wednesday, with Brent futures settling at $79.07 a barrel after Trump threatened further strikes. The rally reversed weeks of declines that had brought prices back toward pre-war levels.reuters

IMF Warns of Broader Economic Damage

The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0 percent, down from the 3.1 percent projected in April, citing the "lingering effects" of the energy shock. The fund raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.7 percent and warned that its projections rest on the "fragile assumption" that the strait would begin reopening by mid-July — a timeline now in serious doubt.nationthailand+3