Analysts eye SpaceX index playbook for Anthropic IPO

Anthropic's share price in its first weeks of trading may depend more on which funds are required to buy the stock than on which investors want it, Reuters reported on Thursday. Investors are studying SpaceX's June listing, when fast-tracked index inclusion brought in a large wave of passive buying, as a template for the Claude maker's IPO, which is expected next week.reuters.com

The AI company plans to raise up to $64.4 billion by selling 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each. That would value it at up to $1.4 trillion, according to Reuters. Only about 6% of its outstanding shares are being offered.reuters.com

Forced buyers and a thin float

Index providers used to wait weeks or months after an IPO before adding a company to their benchmarks. After the rule changes made around SpaceX's listing, including by Nasdaq, Anthropic is expected to join at least six major indexes within 5 to 15 days of listing. Those include FTSE's USA index, the S&P Total Market Index and the Nasdaq 100, Reuters reported.reuters.com

London-based analytics firm Intropic estimates that index-tracking funds will account for about 28% of the shares offered, or roughly $19 billion. Index-rebalancing funds and hedge funds are expected to buy ahead of that demand. "Anthropic is a mirror image of the SpaceX IPO," said Carsten Hesse, head of index events at Berenberg. Like SpaceX, Anthropic is also setting aside about a fifth of its offering for retail investors, Reuters reported. The Economic Times noted that the small public float could amplify the effect of these purchases.cfo.economictimes.indiatimes.com+1

Lessons from SpaceX

SpaceX shares were up 50% from their $150 opening price by the third day of trading, when options trading began. They stayed above the $135 IPO price for 15 days, then drifted lower ahead of lock-up expirations. SK Hynix saw a similar jump on its third day after it listed on Nasdaq in July. "As we've seen with SpaceX, people are buying early," Hesse said, according to Reuters.reuters.com

Anthropic's path may be different. Employees who own about 15% of its equity can sell some shares on the first day. The company is also raising $26 billion in a separate private sale to cornerstone investors including Alphabet's Google, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, and those shares have no lock-up, Reuters reported.reuters.com

A windfall for arbitrage funds

Funds that trade index changes see these giant listings as rare opportunities. Two Millennium Management teams reportedly made $3.7 billion in June. Brian Hartigan of Invesco called the trend "a bit of an evolution of the market." Celia Fseil of Candriam said the size of these deals limits the risk of too many funds crowding into the same trade. "If you're in index rebalancing, these are probably the events of a lifetime," said Bill Park, chief investment officer of Altisma Capital Management, Reuters reported.reuters.com