OECD inflation climbs to 4.5% as energy prices surge

Annual consumer price inflation across the 38-member Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development rose to 4.5% in September from 4.3% in August, the OECD said on November 6. Energy drove most of the increase. Year-on-year energy inflation reached 17.4%, up from 13.6% the month before.oecd.org

The figures show the new energy shock moving into consumer prices more broadly. Energy inflation rose in 31 of the 37 OECD countries with available data, fell in four and held broadly stable in two, according to the release. Food inflation eased by 0.2 percentage points. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stayed broadly stable at 3.7%, Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor reported.borsaitaliana.it+1

G7 prices rise, except in Canada

Headline inflation in the Group of Seven rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August. It increased in every member except Canada, where it was broadly stable, moving from 3% to 3.1%, EFE reported. In Canada, a drop of almost one percentage point in food inflation largely cancelled out a 3.6-point rise in energy inflation.abc.com.py

Energy accounted for about half or more of the rise in headline inflation between August and September in France (3.1%), Germany (3.3%), Italy (4.2%), the United Kingdom (3.6%) and the United States (3.7%), according to EFE. Japan was the exception. Its rise to 2.1% came mainly from core inflation, which went up 0.5 points to 2.2%.abc.com.py

Euro area heads toward 4%

Euro area inflation, measured by the harmonised index, rose to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August. Energy inflation there climbed 4.6 points to 18.9%, the OECD said. Eurostat's preliminary estimate for October points to a further rise to 4%, with energy inflation at 20.8% and core inflation steady at 2.6%, EFE reported.infobae.com+1

Across the Group of 20, inflation rose to 4.3% from 4.1%. India's rate climbed to 5.6%, its highest since August 2023, and inflation also rose in Brazil and South Africa, according to EFE.abc.com.py

Prices well above pre-pandemic levels

On average, prices across the OECD are more than 40% above their December 2019 levels. Food costs almost 50% more than before the pandemic and energy close to 70% more, the organisation said.oecd.org

The OECD had already warned of this pressure in its September interim Economic Outlook, saying a "renewed energy price shock in September is expected to keep inflation higher for longer." That report linked the shock to disruptions to Gulf energy exports during the Middle East conflict and projected G20 inflation of 4.1% in 2026, easing to 3.6% in 2027.oecd.org