EU gas storage hits 68% with winter weeks away

European natural gas prices climbed to their highest level in more than three and a half years on September 8 as the loss of Qatari LNG continues to weigh on a continent scrambling to fill storage before winter. EU storage facilities stood at roughly 68% full as of September 14, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe — well below the bloc's 90% target for November 1 and more than 16 percentage points under the five-year average for this point in the season.aa+1

QatarEnergy's force majeure on LNG deliveries, first declared in the spring after Iranian strikes damaged infrastructure at Ras Laffan and the Strait of Hormuz closed to most tanker traffic, has now been extended through at least early November for some European customers. A single Qatari cargo reached Pakistan last week in the first known LNG shipment to cross Hormuz since July, but analysts describe such movements as exceptions rather than a restart.enterpriseam+1

A Shrinking Buffer

The math facing Europe is stark. Erisa Pasko, lead European gas analyst at Energy Aspects, told Anadolu Agency that her firm expects European inventories to reach around 75 billion cubic meters, or 69% of capacity, by the end of October — roughly a 14-year low heading into winter. Wood Mackenzie estimates that even if Qatar reached full operational capacity by end-September, storage would hit only 75% by November 1, compared with a five-year average of 90%.aa

"The issue is not simply whether Europe has enough gas in volumetric terms, but whether storage can deliver that gas quickly enough during periods of peak demand," Pasko said, noting that European withdrawal capacity begins to decline materially once inventories fall below roughly 40%.aa

Germany's storage stood at just 55.8% as of September 14, while the Netherlands trailed at 52.5%. Bill Farren-Price of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies called both countries, along with France and Slovakia, "well behind the curve".aa

Outbidding, Not Outrunning

Europe has so far avoided a physical shortage by outspending more price-sensitive buyers for flexible LNG cargoes. Dutch TTF futures surged more than 130% over the course of 2026, and Goldman Sachs ↘ 0.36% projected in August that prices may need to exceed €100 per megawatt-hour in December for the continent to rebuild sufficient inventory.euronews+1

American LNG has filled much of the gap left by Qatar, with US exports up 23% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. QatarEnergy itself is now seeking multi-year US LNG purchase agreements to cover customer commitments without routing cargoes through the Gulf.enterpriseam

No Quick Fix

Wood Mackenzie warned that no meaningful new LNG supply growth is expected over the next nine to 12 months, and that new Qatari capacity will not return before the second half of 2027. Iranian strikes knocked two of Ras Laffan's 14 LNG trains offline, removing around 12.8 million tons per annum of capacity that could take three to five years to repair.enterpriseam+1

"Europe is prepared for a normal winter, but it is not well insulated against a severe one," Pasko said. "At current projected storage levels, Europe is increasingly dependent on three things going reasonably well simultaneously: Middle Eastern LNG supply gradually recovering, winter temperatures remaining around normal, and Norwegian and other pipeline supply remaining reliable".aa