Study finds elderly heat risks far greater than estimated

The health threat that rising temperatures pose to older people has been "dramatically underestimated," according to a modeling study published Tuesday in The Lancet Planetary Health by researchers at Stanford University.japantimes+1

The study, released during a record-breaking northern hemisphere summer, found that previous research relied on heat tolerance data gathered from young, healthy adults — failing to account for the reduced sweating capacity, weaker cardiovascular function, and pre-existing conditions common among people over 60.phys+1

A Billion More People Per Degree

Using new wet-bulb temperature experiments conducted on adults over 60 in the United States, the researchers modeled how heat will affect three age groups by 2100 under varying warming scenarios. Their central finding: if the world warms by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, 22% of people over 60 — roughly 290 million — will face unsafe heat for at least a month every year. Young adults would not face similar risk until approximately 4°C of warming.abc+1

Each additional degree of warming would mean a billion more people experiencing roughly another month of heat and humidity beyond what their bodies can tolerate. "Intolerable heat will be experienced at much larger scales and for longer durations, affecting far more people than previously estimated," the study concluded.phys+2

South Asia and the Gulf Face the Worst

Under a 3°C warming scenario, elderly populations in south Asia and the Gulf could face dangerous heat day and night for three straight months per year. The countries at greatest risk are those combining high heat exposure with poverty and limited access to cooling: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Niger.globalnation.inquirer+3

"These results suggest that uncompensable heat could increasingly drive internal displacement and transboundary climate migration, raising new policy and humanitarian challenges," the researchers warned.phys

Calls for Action

The study's authors called for steep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions and urged that heat action plans prioritize vulnerable older populations. Since most heat deaths occur indoors, they emphasized the need for "broader access to air-conditioning and other cooling facilities". The research comes amid what is expected to be Europe's hottest summer on record, with next year projected to be even hotter.japantimes+1