US to ask Russia to accept NATO-style Ukraine guarantees

U.S. officials say they will formally ask Moscow whether it would accept NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace deal. It would be the first time Washington has put the idea directly to Russia, according to two senior administration officials who spoke to Politico. "We've asked the Russians for us to be able to give an Article 4 and an Article 5-like security guarantee to Ukraine, along with NATO providing the same," one official said. The request is expected on Tuesday, Nov. 10, when U.S., Russian and Ukrainian negotiators open two days of talks in Abu Dhabi, Politico reported.politico.com

The offer comes as part of a wider U.S. push to tie a Ukraine settlement to a new agreement on European security. Officials described that approach on Monday, and The Washington Post reported that European officials and experts see it as giving in to a long-standing Kremlin demand.washingtonpost.com

A broader security agenda

A U.S. official told reporters that settling territorial disputes inside Ukraine requires working on "the postwar security architecture." The same official appeared open to limits on Ukraine's ability to rearm and to lifting sanctions on Russia over time, The Washington Post reported. Jared Kushner, one of the lead U.S. envoys, wrote that a lasting settlement "will also require direct engagement between Russia and our European partners on the broader security arrangements that affect them," according to The Associated Press. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that "nothing's been finalized yet," RBC-Ukraine reported.newsukraine.rbc.ua+2

It remains unclear how Washington and its allies would extend such guarantees to Ukraine, which is expected to stay outside NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin is also unlikely to agree, according to Politico.politico.com

European unease

Kushner said last week that the talks would center on a "new European security architecture." Russian officials often use that phrase to mean a smaller NATO presence in front-line states and caps on Ukraine's armed forces, Politico Europe noted. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas pushed back. "We already have European security architecture in place," she said. "The problem remains that Russia keeps breaking the treaties that underpin it".politico.eu+1

National security advisers from France, Britain, Germany and Italy will travel to Abu Dhabi, along with officials from NATO and the EU. They are not expected to sit in on the main negotiations, because the Kremlin objects to their presence, Politico Europe reported. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the talks are "a trilateral negotiation," according to CNN.edition.cnn.com+1

High stakes, low expectations

The talks are the first three-way meeting since February. Russia still demands that Ukraine pull its troops out of four regions Moscow claims to have annexed, AP reported. The White House defended Kushner and fellow envoy Steve Witkoff as "proven dealmakers".abcnews.com+1

Critics remain skeptical. Eric Ciaramella, a former National Security Council official, said the U.S. vision "sounds great," but "the problem is it's exactly the security architecture Russia has been trying to destroy".washingtonpost.com