Trump rules out Iran strikes before Nov. 3 midterms

President Donald Trump said the United States will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. He pointed to "productive discussions" with Tehran and said the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports will stay in force. The pledge came on Thursday, Oct. 8, after reports that the Pentagon was drawing up strike options. It does not rule out military action after Americans vote.barrons+3

"We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd," Trump wrote on Truth Social. He added that "Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily" and that "the Blockade will remain in full force and effect". He gave no details about the talks.abcnews+1

Reports of strike plans

The Atlantic reported Wednesday that the White House had asked the Pentagon for options to strike Iranian targets before the midterms. The New York Times published a similar report Thursday, saying the planning went ahead despite Trump's "ambivalence". Axios, citing U.S. and Israeli officials, reported that U.S. Central Command had been told to prepare for major combat operations. The Wall Street Journal News Corp ↗ 0.28% reported last week that Trump told aides he expects to resume bombing after the election.cnn+2

Al Jazeera noted that Trump has been accused of misdirection before. The U.S. and Israel opened the war on Feb. 28 while talks were still underway. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Thursday that Iran could choose "the easy way or the hard way," and that any action Trump orders would be "swift and decisive".aljazeera+1

Oil eases, Hormuz still a flashpoint

Brent crude rose on Thursday on reports of possible strikes. It eased to about $103 a barrel on Friday after Trump's pledge. Tensions remain high. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Friday they struck an LPG carrier that was trying to take what they called an "illegal route" through the Strait of Hormuz. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) said shipping through the strait is still about 75% below pre-war levels. Separately, Treasury announced new sanctions on 17 vessels and companies tied to Iran's oil trade.gulfnews+3

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is reviewing the U.S. response to its "seven-day plan" to reopen the strait and will reply within days.gulfnews

The political stakes

The war is deeply unpopular at home. A Pew Research Center poll released Thursday found that about 65% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of it. In a CNN analysis, Stephen Collinson called the pledge "an implicit admission of the damage being inflicted on Republican hopes" by the war and by high fuel prices. National gasoline prices average $4.36 a gallon.cnn+1

Trump said at a September Republican convention that the conflict "is going to end immediately after the elections". Collinson wrote that if previous air campaigns did not change Iran's stance, it is unclear "why would a new one be any different?"aljazeera+1