Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries top Wall Street estimates

Tesla said Friday, Oct. 2, that it delivered 486,532 vehicles and built 464,391 in the third quarter. That beat Wall Street's forecast of about 461,100 deliveries, according to a StreetAccount consensus cited by CNBC. Deliveries fell about 2% from 497,099 a year earlier, but rose from 480,126 in the second quarter.cnbc

Tesla's own analyst consensus, published Tuesday, Sept. 29, had called for 461,974 deliveries. That figure was based on 24 analysts and implied a drop of about 7% from last year's record quarter. FactSet's estimate of roughly 461,000 was close to it. Barron's had said Wall Street expected 450,000 to 460,000 vehicles. Investor's Business Daily reported that the stock moved after the release.investors+3

Tough Comparison, Mixed Regions

The year-ago quarter was a record because U.S. buyers rushed to claim the federal EV tax credit, worth up to \$7,500, before it ended on Sept. 30, 2025. Morgan Stanley analysts called this quarter a "tough comparison." They noted that in the second quarter, deliveries "exceeded production by roughly 28K vehicles."cbtnews+1

Results varied by region before the report. Cox Automotive forecast that Tesla's U.S. sales would fall 31% to 123,880, CBT News reported. In the European Union, Tesla registrations rose 52.7% in August, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association. In China, Tesla's retail sales fell 12.43% in August, while exports from Shanghai rose 38.71%.cbtnews

Forecasts going into the report ranged widely. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management expected 497,000 deliveries. He argued that "we're exiting the EV winter that started three years ago," pointing to high gasoline prices and longer wait times for the Model 3 and Model Y. JPMorgan had cut its estimate to 482,000, and Cantor Fitzgerald projected 421,758.finance.yahoo

Energy Storage and What Comes Next

Tesla deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours of energy storage in the quarter. That compares with 12.5 GWh a year earlier and 13.5 GWh in the second quarter. The Model 3 and Model Y made up 98% of deliveries.cnbc

Tesla shares were down about 21% for the year before the report, the worst performance among the "Magnificent Seven" megacap tech stocks. The company recently secured \$30 billion in credit facilities, which it says it does not plan to use in 2026. It expects capital spending this year to exceed \$25 billion as it invests in AI, robotics and manufacturing. Tesla bear Gordon Johnson said: "The number that matters isn't the cash today. It's the cash left after $TSLA builds what it has promised."finance.yahoo+1

Tesla will report third-quarter earnings after the market closes on Oct. 21. A Roadster demonstration is scheduled for Oct. 15.cbtnews+1