Scientists urge governments to brace for record El Niño

The El Niño building in the Pacific has broken records for sea surface warmth, and some climate scientists now say it could end up as the strongest in a millennium. Federal forecasters expect it to keep getting stronger through the end of the year.

University of Exeter climate scientist Mat Collins said the event has already reached record levels and could become the strongest of the past 1,000 years, Tempo reported. On the BBC programme More or Less, one climate scientist said it is "not beyond the realm of possibility" that this could be the strongest El Niño in 500 or even 1,000 years. At the same time, a group of scientists and public figures started a campaign on Friday, Oct. 2, asking governments to prepare now.tempo+2

Records already broken

The Washington Post reported that on Sept. 19, temperatures in the Pacific's Niño 3.4 region reached 3.05°C above average. That was the highest daily reading on record, and it came about two months earlier in the season than the previous peak in November 2015. Carbon Brief put the daily figure at 3.11°C as of Sept. 21. Readings differ slightly because each dataset uses its own baseline.carbonbrief+1

NOAA has not yet declared this the strongest El Niño on record. Its official measure, the Relative Oceanic Niño Index, is based on three-month averages, and by that measure the event has not yet passed the 1997–98 El Niño, according to Science News. The Climate Prediction Center gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter. It also puts the chance at 75% that the October–December period will be stronger than any El Niño since 1950. Models collected by Carbon Brief point to a peak of about 4.1°C sometime between November and January.sciencenews+2

The talk of a millennium comes from a study published in Science in August. Using Galápagos corals, researchers found that El Niño events over the last 40 years were nearly 40% stronger than those before industrialization, and stronger than any in the previous 1,000 years.news.arizona

Effects around the world

Reports have linked the El Niño to drought and crop failures in Central America, a weaker monsoon in India, and a higher risk of fires in Indonesia. In the U.S., the National Weather Service expects southern Wisconsin to have a warmer winter with less snow. Kansas could see a little more precipitation than usual, said assistant state climatologist Matthew Sittel. He cautioned that this reflects an average tendency, "not a guarantee". NPR reported that NOAA is cutting back its research on the event even as it grows.jsonline+3

Call for action

The Alerta El Niño campaign was started by filmmaker Adam McKay's Yellow Dot Studios. Its backers include Jane Fonda, Mark Ruffalo and Javier Bardem, and it asks governments to add El Niño risks to their emergency plans, EFE reported. Spanish researcher Antonio Turiel warned that some southern Spanish cities could reach 50°C next summer. He said governments need to act "now to mitigate the effects of what is coming".es-us.noticias.yahoo

NOAA's next ENSO update is scheduled for Oct. 8.cpc.ncep.noaa