Saudi oil output jumps by a third, OPEC report shows

Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped 8.372 million barrels per day (bpd) in September. That is up from 6.238 million bpd in August, a gain of more than 2 million bpd, and the largest increase anywhere in the OPEC+ alliance. OPEC published the figures in its monthly report on Tuesday, Oct. 13. The rebound lifted the alliance's total output even though the Iran war is still disrupting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.rigzone+1

OPEC+ pumped an average of 39.068 million bpd in September, up 903,000 bpd from 38.165 million bpd in August. The figures come from the secondary sources OPEC uses to track production. OPEC's own members accounted for the gain: their output rose about 920,000 bpd to 25.097 million bpd, as increases in Saudi Arabia and Iraq outweighed declines elsewhere. Output from the non-OPEC countries in the alliance fell by about 18,000 bpd. Russia's production dropped 38,000 bpd to 8.643 million bpd as Ukraine kept striking Russian energy facilities.english.aawsat+1

Recovery from a three-decade low

According to Bloomberg, the September figure marks a recovery from Saudi Arabia's lowest output in more than three decades. Production is still well below where it was before the Iran conflict began. Middle East exports moved back toward pre-war levels last month as producers increased shipments through Hormuz. Riyadh also restored flows on the East-West pipeline, which lets it send exports to the Red Sea, after Yemen's Houthi rebels had targeted the line. Saudi Aramco increased loadings at its Gulf export terminals during September.rigzone+1

Bloomberg also noted that it is unclear whether the recovery has survived the latest increase in Iranian attacks on tankers and the escalating Houthi hostilities. Two Iranian officials told Reuters that Iran is using new tactics to target ships in Hormuz, aiming to keep oil prices high and influence the U.S. midterm elections. On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said the Houthis had struck an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran, causing a limited fire.rte+1

Demand outlook cut again

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 for the sixth straight month, to 180,000 bpd from about 380,000 bpd. It raised its 2027 growth forecast to 2.55 million bpd from 2.36 million bpd, which would bring average demand to 108.3 million bpd. OPEC said countries will need to refill inventories drained by war-related supply disruptions.annahar+1

In early trading Wednesday, oil prices rose. Traders weighed the risk to Saudi supply against the prospect of more Russian diesel exports. Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, put it this way:klsescreener

> "Supply concern stemming from conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is driving prices higher. However, the expectation that increased Russian diesel exports will ease market tightness is likely to limit sharp price movement in either direction."