Russia’s oil output tops 9 million bpd in July, sources tell Reuters

Russia's crude oil and condensate production rose by roughly 100,000 barrels per day in July to above 9 million bpd, buoyed by strong exports and a partial recovery in refinery throughput, according to an exclusive Reuters report published Thursday citing two industry sources.reuters

Production Gains Face August Headwinds

The increase came after months of declining output caused by refinery damage and export constraints. According to OPEC data, Russia's production had fallen to 8.928 million bpd in June, down 61,000 bpd from May and well below the 2025 full-year average of 9.129 million bpd. Russia stopped publishing official oil production data in 2023, roughly a year after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.economictimes+1

The Bank of Russia acknowledged in its July interest rate meeting report that earlier refinery attacks had weighed on output, noting that "the ability to redirect freed-up crude oil volumes to exports was limited by the capacity of transport and port infrastructure".reuters

Drone Campaign Intensifies

The July gains may prove short-lived. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries escalated in late July and early August, forcing several facilities to suspend operations. On Thursday, a fire broke out at a refinery in Russia's Yaroslavl region following a drone strike.business-standard+1

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday that Ukrainian forces also struck a refinery in Bashkortostan, more than 1,300 kilometers behind the front line, as Kyiv pressed its campaign to disrupt Moscow's wartime economy. The Russian Defence Ministry reported intercepting 605 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions.business-standard

Export Squeeze Looms

Russia plans to increase crude exports from its western ports by 4% in August compared with July, as unplanned refinery outages free up barrels that would otherwise be processed domestically. But available tanker capacity in the Black Sea is already tight, and the sources told Reuters that continued drone strikes could force producers to curb output if they cannot place crude volumes.oilprice+1

The result is what Oilprice.com described as "an increasingly awkward oil problem" for Moscow: damaged refineries temporarily boost export availability, but too many outages at once can overwhelm port and shipping capacity, leaving producers with nowhere to send their crude.oilprice