Red Sea shipping hits months-long low after Houthi attacks

Shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait dropped to just 11 commodity vessels on Sunday, the lowest level in months, after Yemen's Houthi forces attacked Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast, according to data from maritime analytics firm Kpler released Monday. The plunge marks a sharp escalation in the disruption of global energy flows, with two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints now simultaneously impaired.whbl+1

Attacks and Blockade

The Houthis declared a complete maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia on July 20, framing the move as retaliation for what they called a long-running Saudi siege of Houthi-held territory in northern Yemen. In a statement, the group invoked "an eye for an eye" and asserted "the right of our great people to respond to the blockade with a blockade".longwarjournal+1

The crisis deepened over the weekend when Houthi forces launched missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco oil facilities in the coastal cities of Jizan and Yanbu, according to Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree. At least seven tankers executed sharp U-turns near the strait after the blockade announcement, and Saudi Arabia has effectively halted crude oil exports via Bab el-Mandeb from its western coast, according to Kpler data cited by The National. The kingdom has redirected Asian-bound shipments through the Suez Canal, where export volumes surged 106 percent to 1.06 million barrels per day.bbc+3

Dual Chokepoint Crisis

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz also remained subdued, with fewer than 10 commodity vessels passing daily over the weekend despite a pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities. The simultaneous disruption of both waterways puts roughly a quarter of global oil supply at risk, according to analysts at Kpler.nytimes+2

Standard Chartered warned Friday that Middle East oil risk has expanded from one strategic chokepoint to two, cautioning that any easing in prices may prove temporary. Brent crude briefly topped $100 per barrel last week for the first time in two months before pulling back slightly on hopes of renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy.primexbt+3

Costs and Outlook

The rerouting of Saudi exports carries steep costs. Shipping via the Suez Canal rather than through Bab el-Mandeb adds time and expense to Asia-bound voyages, driving up freight rates and insurance premiums. Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↘ 1.42% has estimated that some 4 million barrels per day flowing through Bab el-Mandeb could prove difficult to reroute if both straits remain impaired.news.northeastern+2

With no U.S. strikes on Iran reported since July 24 and tentative diplomatic signals emerging, the pause in direct hostilities has done little to ease the maritime threat. As one analyst at Pepperstone Group told Bloomberg, the "path of least resistance continues to point higher" for oil prices unless "a meaningful shift toward two-way negotiations" materializes.aljazeera+2