Putin vows to take rest of Donetsk sooner than expected

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday, Oct. 1, that Russian forces took control of 1,301 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in September. He also said Moscow would seize the rest of Ukraine's Donetsk region "much earlier" than Kyiv and European governments expect. Independent battlefield data do not support his figure. An AFP analysis based on data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) found that Ukraine actually gained about 80 square kilometers more territory than it lost during the month.unn+2

Claims at Valdai

Putin spoke at the plenary session of the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow. He said the Russian offensive was speeding up and called September's figure about 2.5 times the total for previous months. He said Ukraine still holds about 11% of Donetsk. According to Putin, some assessments in Ukraine and Europe suggest Ukrainian forces could hold that ground for another 18 months to two years. He did not name those assessments, and Russia expects to finish sooner, he said.mezha+2

"If the loss of these territories is inevitable, does it make sense to hold on to them and sacrifice people, their safety and their lives for that?" Putin asked, according to Austria's Vol.at.vol

Independent data tell a different story

Based on ISW data, AFP estimated that Russia advanced about 104.5 square kilometers in Zaporizhzhia region and 20 square kilometers in Sumy region in September. Ukraine's recaptures more than made up for those losses. Reuters reported on Sept. 28 that Ukraine controls about 20% of Donetsk region, almost twice the share Putin cited. Ukrainian units recently retook dozens of square kilometers near Lyman. Russian troops are still more than a dozen kilometers from the fortified cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Putin has in the past declared towns such as Kupiansk and Sviatohirsk captured while they remained partly under Ukrainian control.bluewin+2

Talks remain stalled

Putin said Moscow wants to end the war "as soon as possible, preferably through negotiations," but he held to Russia's demand for Ukrainian neutrality. He said U.S. President Donald Trump's proposals include difficult decisions for Russia, but Moscow sees them as a step in the right direction. He blamed Kyiv for the lack of talks. Russia had been ready to resume negotiations after its September parliamentary elections, he said, but Ukraine carried out strikes during the voting. He said those strikes killed six election commission members, a claim that has not been independently confirmed.unn+1

According to Reuters, Putin also warned the West not to escalate. He said Moscow would use every weapon in its arsenal, including nuclear arms, if Kaliningrad were threatened.reuters