OPEC raises long-term oil demand forecast, sees no peak by 2050

OPEC on Thursday released its 2026 World Oil Outlook projecting global oil demand will reach 124 million barrels per day by 2050, an increase from the 122.9 million bpd it forecast a year earlier, while reiterating that no peak in consumption is on the horizon.straitstimes+1

The annual flagship report, launched via livestream from Vienna, sees demand rising from 105.1 million bpd in 2025 to 113.3 million bpd by 2030, holding steady from last year's medium-term forecast.straitstimes

Policy Shifts Underpin Bullish View

OPEC cited a broad shift in government energy policy as the foundation for its outlook. "The increased focus on energy security and energy affordability has shifted the energy policy landscape across the globe," the report stated, pointing to "policy adjustments and reversals" that will support oil consumption over the medium and long term.straitstimes

The organization highlighted slower-than-expected electric vehicle adoption in Europe and the Trump administration's rollback of support for renewables, EVs, and fuel efficiency standards as factors extending oil's dominance. Long-term demand growth from India, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America will further drive consumption even as China makes what OPEC acknowledged was "impressive progress" in shifting to renewable energy.straitstimes

Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais has repeatedly pressed the case against peak demand forecasts. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum earlier this month, he said OPEC still sees "robust demand growth" and has "not registered signs" of demand destruction despite the geopolitical turmoil surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.english.aawsat+1

Stark Contrast With the IEA

The outlook stands in sharp opposition to the International Energy Agency's view. The IEA said in its latest monthly report on Tuesday that the oil market will tip into a supply surplus exceeding 5 million bpd in 2027, as global supply surges by 8 million bpd while demand rises by just 2 million. The IEA's longer-term projection sees demand reaching only 113 million bpd by mid-century — nearly 11 million bpd below OPEC's figure.reuters+2

OPEC also projected that U.S. tight oil production likely peaked in 2025 at just over 9 million bpd, and that output from countries outside the OPEC+ alliance will plateau from the early 2030s. The organization said the global oil sector needs $17.7 trillion in investment through 2050 to meet rising demand.straitstimes