OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand forecast, shifts growth to 2027

OPEC now expects world oil demand to grow by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026. At the start of the year it had forecast 1.4 million bpd. Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais announced the cut on Monday, October 12, at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh. He said part of the growth OPEC had expected this year will now come in 2027, which he described as pent-up demand.apa+1

The change is a large cut for an organization whose forecasts usually sit at the high end of industry estimates. It brings OPEC's view somewhat closer to more cautious forecasters while it keeps a positive long-term outlook.

Growth pushed into next year

"Due to ongoing developments, OPEC has lowered its oil demand forecast for this year compared to the figure projected at the beginning of the year," Al Ghais said, according to Azerbaijan's APA news agency, which cited Russia's TASS. "We expect daily oil demand to increase by 400,000 barrels this year, whereas our forecast at the beginning of the year was an increase of 1.4 million barrels".apa

He said OPEC expects global demand to grow by 1.7 million bpd in 2027. OPEC's September Monthly Oil Market Report had already lowered the 2026 figure and put total consumption this year at 105.84 million bpd. It said most of next year's growth would come from countries outside the OECD, the group of mostly wealthy economies. Their combined growth is forecast to rise from 490,000 bpd in 2026 to 1.92 million bpd in 2027.oilprice+1

The International Energy Agency has been more pessimistic this year. In its April report it said it expected global oil demand to fall by 80,000 bpd in 2026, as supply disruptions increased. Oil prices have recently been above $100 a barrel. APA reported on Monday that prices had slipped below $104.iea+1

Long-term outlook unchanged

Al Ghais also said the world will need 23% more primary energy by 2050. That figure comes from OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2026, published in June. The report projects global primary energy demand of almost 383 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2050, mainly because of population growth, urbanization and economic growth in developing countries. It also forecasts oil demand of 124 million bpd by mid-century.reuters+2

Al Ghais has repeated those numbers at conferences this autumn. Speaking in Kuwait, he said oil would keep about a 30% share of the energy mix. In June he said meeting long-term demand would require $17.7 trillion of oil investment from 2026 to 2050, more than $700 billion a year.IndexBox Inc.+1

In the June outlook, Al Ghais said, "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon".publications.opec.org