NOAA says El Nino could rank among strongest on record

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its latest monthly update on Thursday, warning that a rapidly intensifying El Niño is increasingly likely to rank among the most powerful events since modern record-keeping began in 1950. The agency now places an 81% probability on the event reaching "very strong" status between October and January, up from 63% in its June assessment, with a 97% chance it persists through early spring 2027.x+2

Sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 monitoring region of the equatorial Pacific have reached 1.2°C above average, while the eastern Pacific is running even warmer, driven by a subsurface Kelvin wave pushing heat toward the surface. NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory said all 30 of its forecast ensemble members now project a peak intensity "at least competitive with the strongest events over the past century."cp24+2

A Rapid Escalation

The event has developed with unusual speed. NOAA officially declared El Niño conditions on June 11, and model projections have shifted upward with each successive update. The World Meteorological Organization warned late last month that seasonal-average sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions — a threshold historically associated with a "super" El Niño — with the most rapid intensification likely during July through September.newsweek+3

Some model ensembles project peak anomalies between 3°C and 4°C in parts of the equatorial Pacific, which would place the event among the strongest observed in modern history. Colorado State University's latest hurricane forecast, issued Wednesday, cited the strengthening El Niño as a key reason it now expects only nine named storms in the Atlantic this season — the fewest since 2014.weather+2

Global Health and Agricultural Risks

The Pan American Health Organization published a situation analysis on July 7 warning that the event could trigger "cascading epidemiological crises" across the Americas, with surges in cholera, dengue, malaria, and heat-related illness. PAHO urged governments to strengthen disease surveillance, integrate weather forecasting with health systems, and ensure access to safe drinking water in flood-prone areas.paho+1

Beyond the Americas, WMO forecasts point to below-normal rainfall across parts of the Indian Ocean region, the Indian subcontinent, and much of Australia during July through September, consistent with patterns that historically bring drought to Indonesia and agricultural losses across Southeast Asia.wmo

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño conditions "will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions," urging governments and emergency agencies to prepare.cnn+1