Munich Re warns ‘Super El Niño’ will intensify extreme weather in late 2026

Munich Re Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft Aktiengesellschaft in München on Thursday released its natural disaster review for the first half of 2026, warning that a "dangerous mix" of global warming and a looming Super El Niño will push temperatures higher and intensify extreme weather in the months ahead.wkzo+1

The warning comes as wildfires rage across France and Spain, underscoring the growing threat of climate-driven disasters.wmbdradio+1

H1 Losses Below Average but Risks Mount

In the first six months of the year, natural disasters caused worldwide losses estimated at nearly $112 billion, slightly below the inflation-adjusted ten-year average of $113 billion. Only $44 billion of those losses were insured, representing a protection gap of 60 percent.munichre+1

The most destructive event was a double earthquake that struck Venezuela on June 24, when two powerful quakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude hit near the town of Morón, roughly 200 kilometers west of Caracas. Thousands of people died, and preliminary estimates put total losses at around $30 billion.cirmagazine+1

Record-breaking heatwaves dominated North America and Europe. Germany recorded a new national high of 41.8°C in June, and scientists described many of the new highs as "record-shattering temperatures." In Germany alone, heat-related deaths between April and June exceeded 5,000, according to the Robert Koch Institute. Severe thunderstorms in the United States were the largest driver of insured losses, though at $22 billion in insured costs they remained below ten-year averages.munichre

Super El Niño Threatens Second Half

Munich Re's starkest warning concerned the second half of the year. "Current forecasts point to record-breaking El Niño conditions towards the end of the year," the company said.wmbdradio+1

Tobias Grimm, Munich Re's chief climate scientist, said: "It's a dangerous mix: as global warming continues, the world is also heading for a Super El Niño, which will drive temperatures up even further. The effects will likely be clearly felt in the second half of the year. Taking timely precautions saves lives and limits the economic damage caused by disasters."munichre+1

The El Niño pattern raises drought and wildfire risk in Australia, Central America, and southwestern Africa, while increasing heavy rainfall in western South America and the southwestern United States. It also tends to enhance typhoon activity across the North Pacific, placing Japan, Korea, and Greater China at heightened risk.munichre

Context and Outlook

Global mean sea surface temperatures are already at record levels, and El Niño phases typically amplify them further. Munich Re noted that 2024 remains the warmest year on record at around 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — a year also influenced by El Niño.munichre

While the North Atlantic hurricane season has so far been quiet — typical during El Niño phases — the insurer cautioned that powerful hurricanes can still occur under such conditions, citing Hurricane Andrew in 1992 as a precedent.munichre