Morgan Stanley sees $14B boost from Apple’s foldable iPhone

Apple's ↘ 0.52% first foldable iPhone could contribute roughly $14 billion in revenue during the December quarter, Morgan Stanley ↘ 0.55% said in a research note published this week, calling the company's September 9 product event the most consequential since the iPhone X launched in 2017.macdailynews+2

Analyst Erik Woodring described the device as the largest iPhone form-factor change in nearly a decade. The bank expects strong initial demand but constrained supply, projecting 7 million to 8 million units built in the second half of 2026 and up to 20 million over the first full product cycle. Shipments are expected to begin in October or early November.macdailynews

Pricing Power Under the Microscope

Morgan Stanley framed the launch as a test of Apple's pricing power. Rising NAND and DRAM costs are expected to push iPhone 18 Pro models more than $200 higher year over year, marking what the bank called the broadest like-for-like iPhone price increases in company history. Other analysts have estimated the foldable device — rumored to be called the iPhone Ultra — could carry a price tag of roughly $2,000 to $2,500. Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has pointed to similarly tight early volumes and the possibility of weeks-long wait times.digitaltrends+1

On the component side, the key upgrade on the iPhone 18 Pro is expected to be TSMC's Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ↗ 6.33% 2-nanometer process, aimed at boosting on-device AI performance. Morgan Stanley said Apple appears more focused on securing components than on finding buyers, though memory supply could still limit near-term production.macdailynews

A New CEO Takes the Stage

The September 9 "Surprise and Shine" event at Steve Jobs Theater will also mark a leadership milestone. New CEO John Ternus is expected to introduce the foldable alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max in what would be his first product keynote as chief executive. The standard iPhone 18 is not expected at the event and has reportedly been pushed to spring 2027.commercialappeal+4

Woodring maintained an Overweight rating on Apple shares with a $360 price target, noting the stock has historically outperformed heading into launch events but can fade on the day itself. Sustained gains, he wrote, will depend on subsequent estimate revisions.macdailynews+1