Morgan Stanley nearly doubles China humanoid robot forecast to 50,000 units

Morgan Stanley now expects 50,000 humanoid robot shipments from China in 2026, nearly double its prior forecast of 28,000 units.facebook+1
Chinese firms shipped roughly 85% of the world's humanoid robots in 2025, while U.S. rivals Tesla , Figure AI, and Agility Robotics each shipped about 150.fortune+1
Barclays estimates the global humanoid robotics market could grow from roughly $2–3 billion today to $200 billion by 2035.cnbc

Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 China humanoid robot shipment forecast for the second time this year on Tuesday, now expecting 50,000 units to ship — nearly double its previous projection of 28,000. The revision reflects accelerating commercial deployment across Chinese factories, logistics hubs, and retail settings, with the bank projecting the market will reach $15 billion and 446,000 annual shipments by 2030.facebook+1

A Rapid Series of Upgrades

The bank initially forecast 14,000 Chinese humanoid robot shipments for 2026 before doubling that estimate to 28,000 in January. Tuesday's upgrade to 50,000 units marks a more than threefold increase from the original projection in under six months. Morgan Stanley expects the Chinese humanoid robotics market to reach $2 billion this year, buoyed by Beijing's decision to elevate "embodied AI" as a national strategic priority over the next five years, with subsidies for land and office space flowing to local manufacturers.linkedin+2

China's Commanding Lead

The forecast revision underscores China's dominance in the nascent industry. Chinese companies accounted for roughly 85% to 90% of global humanoid robot shipments in 2025, according to reports from Barclays and Morgan Stanley. Of the more than 13,000 humanoid robots shipped worldwide last year, AgiBot led with approximately 5,100 units, followed by Unitree with over 4,200. U.S. competitors Tesla , Figure AI, and Agility Robotics each shipped about 150 units.facebook+3

Many of China's 2025 orders — valued at more than 2 billion yuan ($295 million) — came from state-owned enterprises for deployment in power plants, data centers, and entertainment venues, Morgan Stanley said.fortune+1

The Road to Mass Adoption

The broader market trajectory remains steep. Barclays estimates the global humanoid robotics market sits at $2 billion to $3 billion today but could reach $200 billion by 2035. Morgan Stanley's longer-term view projects a $5 trillion global market by 2050 with more than one billion humanoids in operation.morganstanley+2

For now, the commercial case centers on repetitive industrial tasks. Barclays anticipates a second wave after 2030 will bring robots into healthcare, elder care, and education. Whether Chinese firms can maintain their commanding market share as U.S. and other international players scale production remains a central question for the decade ahead.cnbc

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