Iraq pushes for 6M barrel-per-day baseline in OPEC+ review

Iraq is pushing for a major increase to its oil production quota, requesting that OPEC+ calculate future targets from a baseline of 6 million barrels per day, according to a Bloomberg News report on Wednesday. The request comes as the alliance conducts a review of members' production capacities to set output levels for next year.bloomberg

A Bold Bid From OPEC's Second-Largest Producer

The 6-million-barrel baseline would represent a large upgrade from Iraq's most recent quota of about 4.431 million barrels per day. The sources familiar with the matter asked not to be identified because the process is private, Bloomberg reported. Iraq's oil ministry did not respond to a request for comment.astanatimes+1

Reuters Thomson Reuters Corporation ↘ 6.50% confirmed the report, noting that the request emerged as OPEC+ prepares to establish new production baselines for 2027. The capacity review involves consultations with global consultancies to assess how much each member nation can sustainably produce.reuters+1

Months of Pressure From Baghdad

Iraq's push for a higher quota has been building for months. In June, Reuters reported that Baghdad had considered leaving OPEC altogether if the group did not allow it to raise production. Iraq's oil minister, Bassem Khudair, subsequently traveled to Washington in July alongside Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi, during which he confirmed Iraq was in active talks with OPEC to increase its ceiling.reuters+1

Baghdad has framed the request as essential for reconstruction and economic growth, arguing that OPEC needs to account for the country's specific security and economic conditions. Iraq has also laid out longer-term ambitions, with officials saying the country aims to reach 8 to 10 million barrels per day within six years.agbi+1

OPEC+ at a Crossroads on 2027 Baselines

The request arrives at a sensitive moment for the alliance. OPEC+ completed the unwinding of voluntary output cuts agreed in 2023 with a final 188,000-barrel-per-day increase in September, and has since paused further hikes as it turns to the baseline review. Analysts have noted that the group faces potentially difficult negotiations over the new quotas.worldoil+2

Iraq's actual production has at times fallen well below its allotted quota due to disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran and constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Whether the alliance will grant a baseline as high as 6 million barrels per day — well above Iraq's demonstrated recent output — remains an open question as the audit proceeds.aljazeera+1