iPhone Duo could capture 25% of foldable market, TrendForce says

Apple ↗ 3.56% unveiled the iPhone Duo on Wednesday, its first foldable smartphone, entering a category that Samsung has led for years — and according to new research from TrendForce, the device could immediately claim nearly a quarter of the global foldable market.

A Market Shaken by Apple's Arrival

TrendForce estimates that iPhone Duo shipments will reach approximately 5 million units in 2026, giving Apple a 24.8% share of the foldable smartphone market and making it the second-largest brand behind Samsung. Samsung is projected to maintain its lead with about 7.1 million units and a 35.1% market share, while Huawei is expected to match Apple at roughly 5 million units.tradingview+3

Global foldable shipments are forecast at around 20.2 million units in 2026, a modest 0.5% increase year-over-year. But excluding Apple, Android brands are expected to see shipments decline by more than 20%, largely due to rising component costs.tradingview

TrendForce described 2026 as "a year of structural transformation" for the foldable market, noting that Apple's entry could prompt Samsung and Chinese manufacturers to rethink their foldable strategies.benzinga

How the Two Devices Compare

The iPhone Duo, priced starting at $1,999, goes up against the Galaxy Z Fold 8, which Samsung launched in August at $1,899. Both devices share a wider, passport-style form factor with similarly sized displays — a 7.6-inch inner screen on the Duo and 7.6 inches on the Fold 8.tomsguide+3

Apple's foldable distinguishes itself in several areas. It carries an IP68 dust and water resistance rating, matching Google's Pixel 10 Pro Fold, while Samsung's Fold 8 remains at IP48, offering no dust protection. The Duo supports the Apple Pencil USB-C — a feature Samsung dropped when it removed S Pen compatibility starting with the Galaxy Z Fold 7. Apple also included MagSafe, faster 60W wired charging compared to Samsung's 45W, and vapor chamber cooling paired with the A20 Pro chip.tomsguide

Samsung's Fold 8, meanwhile, benefits from years of iterative refinement. It runs the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 chipset and is lighter at 201 grams. It also costs $100 less than the Duo at its base configuration.sammobile+2

Wall Street Eyes an Upgrade Cycle

Analysts see the iPhone Duo as a potential catalyst for Apple's revenue. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives projected the foldable could account for as much as 20% of iPhone revenue, while Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management raised his estimate for the Duo's contribution to 10% of iPhone revenue in fiscal 2027, up from an initial 5% forecast. Reuters reported that Apple CEO John Ternus introduced the device at the company's September event, describing a precision-machined titanium frame and a hinge designed to keep the inner screen flat when unfolded. Pre-orders are set to open on October 16, with availability beginning October 23.pocket-lint+2