IEA says energy security now drives renewables growth

Countries trying to protect themselves from volatile fuel imports are now the main reason renewable energy is growing, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, November 6. Its Renewables 2026 report forecasts that the world will add almost 4,800 gigawatts of renewable power capacity between 2026 and 2031, almost 60% more than in the previous six-year period. Coverage of the report put the increase at 57%.iea.org+1

"Previously, environmental concerns were the policy priority behind the growth of renewables, whose falling costs have made them a competitive option in many markets – but today, it's mainly energy security that is driving renewables' expansion as more and more countries seek to reduce their exposure to imported fuels," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. His statement was also carried by OPIS.opis.com+1

Crisis widens the map

The forecast comes after months of market disruption that began when the Iran war broke out at the end of February. The IEA said stronger policy support and security concerns are speeding up deployment in India, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East. For the first time, emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to add as much capacity as advanced economies, about 1,100 GW each, while China adds around 2,550 GW.english.aawsat.com+1

According to the report, India will become the second-largest market for new capacity after China, and additions in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa will roughly triple. China's share of global additions is expected to fall from more than 60% in 2025 to 53%. New solar installations in China dropped about 55% in the first nine months of 2026 after the country moved from fixed tariffs to auctions, the agency noted.trend.az

Solar leads, grids strain

Solar PV is set to make up more than three-quarters of the growth, with onshore wind second. Renewables' share of global electricity is projected to rise from 33% in 2025 to almost 45% in 2031. Higher oil prices also led the IEA to raise its forecast for growth in liquid biofuel production by 40%.trend.az+2

Fast growth is creating new pressure on power systems. The report found that advanced-stage grid connection requests rose 60% in a year to 3,000 GW. It also projects that wind and solar output lost to grid constraints, about 200 terawatt-hours in 2025, will exceed 800 TWh by 2031, according to Trend.trend.az

Tripling goal still out of reach

The IEA's main scenario puts global capacity at about 9,710 GW in 2030, which falls short of the COP28 goal to triple renewables. Faster auctions, more grid investment and simpler permitting could lift growth by 20% and reach the tripling target in 2031.trend.az

Birol described the change as global. "Currently, one-third of global electricity generation comes from renewable sources. Over the next five years, this share is expected to approach half," he said.en.apa.az