IDC predicts Apple’s foldable iPhone will ship 10M units in its first year

Apple Inc. ↗ 1.63% is poised to reshape the foldable smartphone market with its first foldable iPhone, which research firm International Data Corporation projects will ship more than 10 million units in its debut year despite a price tag of around $2,500, according to a report by Bloomberg on Wednesday.moneycontrol+1

The passport-style device, expected to launch in September, would rescue a foldable category that was otherwise heading for a double-digit decline, IDC said. The firm now forecasts foldable shipments will grow 12.6% this year and 18% next year, with Apple commanding 40% of all worldwide foldable shipments by 2027.thenextweb+1

A Premium Bet on an Elite Buyer

"I expect the passport-style Apple foldable to be widely successful despite the high $2,500 price tag," said Nabila Popal, IDC's senior research director. "A very elite set of consumers are being targeted here, who will be lining up to buy the device".investing+1

The device would open outward like a book to reveal a tablet-sized display, a form factor Samsung Electronics pioneered seven years ago with its Galaxy Z Fold line. Samsung's Z Fold8 Ultra currently starts at $2,099 in the United States, placing Apple's expected price roughly $400 higher.thenextweb

Broader Market Under Pressure

While foldables may get a lift from Apple's entry, the wider smartphone industry faces headwinds. IDC revised its full-year forecast to a record 16.7% decline in overall smartphone shipments, driven by shortages and rising costs for memory chips used in AI features.investing+1

"The components that make AI possible are the same ones in short supply, and their cost is being passed straight through to the shelf," said IDC's Francisco Jeronimo. "The era of the cheap smartphone has ended".moneycontrol+1

September 9 Launch Under New Leadership

Apple has confirmed a product showcase event for September 9 under the tagline "Surprise and Shine," to be held at the Steve Jobs Theater in Apple Park. The event will mark the company's first major launch under new CEO John Ternus, who succeeded Tim Cook on September 1. Along with the expected iPhone 18 Pro lineup, reports indicate the event will spotlight the foldable device, which early leaks suggest may feature Touch ID instead of Face ID and an ultra-thin design.stocktwits

In Europe, the phone will arrive with an additional layer of scrutiny. EU regulations in effect since June 2025 require every smartphone to display an energy label grading repairability, battery endurance, and drop survival — rules that apply to foldables as well.thenextweb