Goldman says EV boom could push Brent crude to $55

Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↗ 0.14% has warned that the rapid global uptake of electric vehicles, led by China, could reduce world oil demand by as much as 320,000 barrels per day by December 2027, reinforcing a structural shift that may push Brent crude prices toward $55 per barrel.

EV Sales Accelerate Amid Hormuz Crisis

In a research note published in late June, Goldman analyst Alexandra Paulus said the global share of EVs in total passenger car sales rose to 26.1% as of May, up 3.4 percentage points since February and approaching a record high. Twelve of the 15 largest EV markets saw increased adoption during that period.finance.yahoo

China has driven over 60% of the global increase, with EV penetration jumping 11.4 percentage points since February. Paulus noted that elevated fuel prices tied to the months-long disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz likely accelerated the consumer shift toward electric vehicles, particularly in China where gasoline demand has weakened as EV charging volumes have surged.Pluang+1

Under Goldman's base-case scenario, where current demand trends persist, global oil demand would fall by 320,000 barrels per day by the end of 2027. Even in a more conservative scenario where EV penetration holds steady, demand would still decline by 130,000 barrels per day more than previously expected.finance.yahoo

A Structural Drag on Oil

The analysis builds on Goldman's broader reassessment of the oil market following the Hormuz crisis. Earlier in June, the bank lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80 per barrel, citing stronger supply from the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and the UAE alongside weaker Chinese demand. After the June 14 U.S.-Iran peace deal reopened the strait, Goldman further cut its Brent outlook to $75 for 2027.reuters+2

Goldman estimated in early June that global oil demand had fallen 4 to 5 million barrels per day in April due to the Hormuz closure, with China slashing crude imports by a similar magnitude. While the bank expects roughly 90% of that demand loss to recover, its analysts project that China's accelerating EV transition will leave a persistent structural drag.Investinglive+3

Implications for the Oil Market

The EV findings underscore a longer-term challenge for crude markets even as near-term prices stabilize following the ceasefire. Goldman concluded that a prolonged slowdown in oil demand growth could send Brent to the mid-$50s per barrel by late 2027. According to the International Energy Agency, EVs are expected to account for 50% of new global vehicle sales by 2035 without additional policy incentives, a trajectory that would continue displacing oil consumption well beyond Goldman's current forecast horizon.Pluang+1