Goldman Sachs quadruples humanoid robot forecast to $138B

Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↗ 0.07% has dramatically raised its projections for the humanoid robot market, now forecasting 6.5 million units shipped annually by 2035 and a corresponding market size of $138 billion, according to an 80-page "Physical AI" research report released this week by the bank's internet and e-commerce analyst Eric Sheridan.moomoo

The revised estimates represent roughly a fourfold increase from the bank's prior outlook, which called for 1.38 million units by 2035. The 2030 forecast was lifted from 256,000 units to 890,000, while a near-term 2026 baseline rose from 51,000 to 75,000 units. Goldman Sachs cited advances in physical artificial intelligence as accelerating development timelines, with more companies moving toward commercial-scale production.investing+2

Warehouses First, Then Factory Floors

Sheridan identified warehousing and logistics as the primary early deployment scenario, with Amazon Amazon.com, Inc. ↘ 0.15% and Walmart ↘ 1.18% leading the charge. Amazon has deployed more than one million robots across over 300 sites, while Walmart has extended freight automation to its 3,100 stores nationwide. Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2030, automation could save Amazon roughly $72 billion in service costs and boost operating margins by about 240 basis points.moomoo

The automotive industry represents the next wave. While car body welding is already heavily automated, final assembly and parts sorting remain labor-intensive. Tesla ↘ 5.92% and Hyundai are among the most active participants in humanoid robotics, according to the report, with Toyota, Honda ↘ 1.12%, and Mitsubishi Motors also well positioned. Goldman Sachs estimated Toyota could produce 190,000 to 540,000 humanoid units by 2035, capturing 3% to 8% of the global market.investing

Semiconductors and Software Stand to Gain

Each humanoid robot is expected to drive semiconductor demand worth $3,000 to more than $6,000, encompassing high-performance computing modules, analog and mixed-signal chips, and edge storage. The report also flagged a shift from traditional programmable logic controllers to software-defined virtual PLCs, a market Goldman Sachs expects to grow 20% to 30% annually — a trend that could challenge incumbents like Siemens, Rockwell Automation ↗ 1.29%, and Schneider Electric.moomoo

A Goldman Sachs survey of corporate executives found that roughly 40% expect at least 10% of workflows to be automated through general-purpose robots within three to five years.moomoo