Gold nears $4,200 as weak jobs data eases Fed hike fears

Gold rallied sharply on Thursday, breaking above $4,100 per ounce after a disappointing June employment report undercut expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate increases. The move snapped what had been the metal's longest weekly losing streak since mid-2023 and sent silver climbing in tandem.

Jobs Miss Sparks Precious Metals Rally

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, far below the roughly 110,000 consensus forecast from economists polled by LSEG and FactSet. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3% in May, while prior months were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs.cbsnews+2

Spot gold jumped more than 2% to trade around $4,130 per ounce in the immediate aftermath of the release, according to Kitco News. By midmorning Thursday, gold August futures had climbed to $4,140.90, according to Yahoo Finance. Silver September futures rose to $62.10 per ounce, a gain of more than 4% on the day, USA Today reported.kitco+3

The weak labor data prompted traders to scale back expectations for Fed rate hikes. Markets shifted from pricing in one to two rate increases in 2026 to between zero and one, according to FXStreet, which noted gold advanced for a third consecutive day on Friday to approach the $4,200 level during Asian trading.fxstreet

Losing Streak Broken

The rebound came after gold had fallen for four consecutive weeks, its longest such slide since August 2023, weighed down by a stronger dollar and rising real yields. Year-to-date, the metal had been down roughly 7.5% heading into this week, according to CNBC, as markets priced in the possibility that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could tighten policy further to combat stubborn inflation.cnbc+1

Silver had been hit even harder, losing nearly 20% from its January highs before Thursday's bounce. The metal had dropped below $58 before the payrolls data reversed its trajectory.finance.yahoo+1

Outlook Remains Divided

Analysts are split on what comes next. FXStreet's technical analysis points to resistance near $4,301 at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of gold's April-to-June decline, with the 50% level around $4,412. Goldman Sachs ↗ 0.14% recently trimmed its year-end gold target to $4,900 from $5,400, citing expectations that the Fed will hold rates elevated. Macquarie forecasts an average 2026 price of $4,641 but sees prices declining to $4,200 by 2027.goldrepublic+2

Trading volumes are expected to thin on Friday with U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, though the fundamental backdrop — softer labor data, easing rate hike bets, and simmering U.S.-Iran tensions — "seems tilted firmly in favor of the bulls," FXStreet noted.fxstreet