Global ocean logged 100 straight days of record heat as El Niño intensifies

The Pacific Ocean is brewing what could become the most powerful El Niño ever recorded, with forecasters now warning of far-reaching consequences for weather patterns, food supplies, and global temperatures stretching well into 2027.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center confirmed in its September diagnostic discussion that El Niño has a greater than 90% chance of becoming a "very strong" event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27, with a 75% chance of exceeding all previous El Niño events on record since 1950. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have already climbed to 2.2 to 2.6 degrees Celsius above average, with subsurface ocean temperatures in some areas running more than 8 degrees above normal.news.mongabay+3

"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement on September 3. "The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up."news.un+1

Global Impacts Take Shape

The World Meteorological Organization said on September 3 that El Niño is "firmly established" and will intensify into a very strong event, with a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned the phenomenon has "the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world" and called for "exceptional preparation and response".ladbible+3

The effects will not be uniform. Parts of East Africa, southern South America, and the southern United States are expected to see increased rainfall and flood risks, while Indonesia, Australia, India, and southern Asia face drier conditions and heightened wildfire danger. India's monsoon rainfall from June through early September was already 15% below average. In the Atlantic, stronger vertical wind shear is suppressing hurricane development, while the Pacific has seen increased storm activity, including Category 5 hurricanes.bbc+1

Record Ocean Heat and a Hotter 2027

The El Niño is intensifying against a backdrop of unprecedented ocean warming. Between June 2 and September 10, the global ocean sustained 100 consecutive days of record-high sea surface temperatures, according to data from the Climate Reanalyzer. August 2026 tied July 2023 as the hottest month ever recorded, with global average surface air temperatures reaching 1.65 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service.geosirius.ifz+1

The WMO estimates an 86% probability that at least one year before 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record, with 2027 a leading candidate given El Niño's expected trajectory. AccuWeather meteorologist Chad Merrill told Newsweek News Corp ↘ 2.07% that the polar vortex could interact with the El Niño during the second half of winter, potentially bringing a brief cold spell to the northern United States, though it "doesn't usually dictate the longer-term pattern" during strong El Niño events.newsweek+1

The World Food Programme has warned that a strong El Niño could worsen food shortages in vulnerable communities, with maize, rice, and other rain-dependent crops at particular risk.vietnam