Fuel prices surge in South Africa and UK as Brent crude tops $90

Motorists in South Africa and the United Kingdom are bracing for another round of painful fuel price increases in September, as the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran continues to disrupt global oil markets and keep Brent crude trading above $90 a barrel.

South Africa Set for Steep Diesel Surge

South African drivers will see prices rise from Wednesday, September 2, with month-end data from the Central Energy Fund pointing to increases of around 96 cents per litre for 93 Unleaded and R1.07 for 95 Unleaded. Diesel faces a far steeper hit, with projections indicating hikes of approximately R2.71 for 500ppm diesel and R2.92 for 50ppm. Earlier in the week, IOL reported even larger potential diesel increases of around R2.88 and R3.09 respectively, before the figures moderated slightly toward month-end.sundaytribune+1

The official adjustments are expected to be announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources early this week. The Slate Levy, currently at 61 cents, could also affect the final figures.sundaytribune

A litre of 95 Unleaded currently costs R25.30 at the coast and R26.17 inland, after both petrol grades decreased by 52 cents at the start of August — a brief reprieve announced by Minister Gwede Mantashe even as diesel climbed sharply in the same period. The year 2026 has been volatile: 95 Unleaded has risen R5.24 between March and August, while diesel's wholesale price has jumped R7.60 in that span.www+1

UK Pump Prices Hit Iran War Highs

Across the Atlantic, UK petrol prices have climbed to their highest levels since the Iran conflict began in late February. The AA reported average unleaded prices of approximately 161.6p per litre and diesel at around 183.4p. The BBC reported in early August that petrol had already breached 160p, a level not seen since November 2022 during the spike following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. RAC head of policy Simon Williams warned at the time that unleaded had risen more than 10p per litre — a 7 percent increase — since bottoming out at 150.59p on July 6.ukmalayalee+2

Diesel remains the bigger concern. The RAC had previously cautioned that diesel could reach 185p unless oil prices fell substantially, a threshold now within striking distance.ukmalayalee

Oil Markets and the Strait of Hormuz

The price pressure traces directly to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, which has been largely closed to shipping traffic since the conflict escalated. Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel at the end of August, well above pre-war levels of around $70. JP Morgan JPMorgan Chase & Co. ↘ 0.94% Global Research now expects Brent to average $86 in the third quarter before easing to $80 in the fourth quarter, citing demand destruction — particularly in China — and smaller-than-expected draws on commercial inventories. But analysts warn that uncertainty over OPEC's future and the security of Gulf shipping lanes could keep forecasts unreliable for months to come.tradingeconomics+2