Europe’s fifth heat wave could erase EU economic growth, Dutch bank warns

A fifth heat wave since May is bearing down on Europe this week, prompting red-level advisories across western, central, and southern portions of the continent and drawing warnings from economists that the cumulative toll of extreme heat could erase projected economic growth for the year.

Record Temperatures and Wildfire Risks

The latest heat event, driven by an expansive high-pressure system commonly known as a heat dome, is forecast to push temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in parts of Spain, Italy, and France between Wednesday and Friday. In Spain, the national meteorological agency AEMET has forecast temperatures reaching 42 degrees Celsius in southern regions by Wednesday, while Météo-France has warned of 38 to 40 degrees across much of France from Wednesday onward.nytimes

Italy has already been enduring extreme heat since last week, when the Health Ministry placed all 27 cities monitored under its heat surveillance system on red alert. In Central Europe, record-breaking temperatures were recorded in recent days, including 42.2 degrees Celsius in Slovakia and an all-time high of 41.2 degrees Celsius in Austria.aljazeera

Britain is bracing for temperatures that could reach 36 degrees Celsius in parts of southeast England by midweek, which would mark a fourth consecutive month of temperatures hitting 35 degrees or higher. The European Forest Fire Information System has placed areas in Britain, western France, the Alps, and the Balkans under "very extreme" fire danger conditions through at least Wednesday.nytimes

Economic Toll Mounts

Dutch bank Triodos warned in a new analysis that the extreme summer weather could reduce EU GDP by approximately 1.1 percent in 2026—a figure that matches the bloc's projected growth rate for the year, effectively wiping out economic expansion. The bank estimates the loss at roughly €180 billion.nltimes+1

In the Netherlands specifically, Triodos expects projected economic growth to be "largely negated" by the heat. "The economy is not set up for this here, so the effects quickly become very large," said the bank's economist Hans Stegeman.nltimes

The assessment adds to growing concern about heat-related economic damage in Europe. NPR reported that the ongoing heat wave has already strained energy supplies, with Slovakia's only nuclear power plant operating at 80 percent capacity as Danube River water levels fall to record lows.npr+1

A Summer of Extremes

The current crisis caps what has become one of Europe's most punishing summers on record. Thousands of excess deaths have been reported across the continent this summer amid the series of heat waves, and the European Commission deployed its largest-ever wildfire response force earlier in the season, including 777 firefighters from 14 countries.wildfiretoday+1

The heat wave will coincide with a total solar eclipse traversing parts of Greenland, Iceland, and Spain on Wednesday, a day AEMET has cautioned will also carry very high or extreme wildfire risk in Spain.nytimes