England and Norway tied 1-1 at halftime of World Cup quarterfinal

Saturday's two World Cup quarterfinals — Norway vs. England at 5 p.m. ET and Argentina vs. Switzerland at 9 p.m. ET — drew heavy trading activity on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, with millions of dollars flowing through match outcome and tournament winner contracts as bettors sized up two of the most consequential games of the tournament so far.

England Favored but Facing a Fight

Kalshi traders gave England a 65% chance to advance past Norway, according to the platform's blog, reflecting the Three Lions' deeper tournament pedigree and strong knockout-stage run under manager Thomas Tuchel. On the regulation-time moneyline, Kalshi priced England at 54% to win in 90 minutes, with Norway at 25% and a draw at 23%. Traditional sportsbooks told a similar story, with Covers listing England as a -200 favorite to advance.covers+2

The match, played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, was tied 1-1 at halftime, according to the Associated Press. The tight scoreline rattled England's odds to win the overall tournament, which slipped 1.5 percentage points on the day across platforms, according to DeFi Rate, a site that tracks prediction market pricing. Norway, meanwhile, attracted $4.6 million in tournament-winner volume across Kalshi and Polymarket — more than England's $1.6 million — as speculative traders wagered on a potential upset.apnews+1

Argentina Heavily Favored Against Switzerland

In the later quarterfinal, Argentina entered as a clear favorite. Polymarket priced Argentina at 57% to win in regulation, while ESPN listed the moneyline at -145. On the outright tournament winner market, Argentina sat at 18.2% across platforms, compared to just 1.7% for Switzerland. The combined trading volume on those two teams exceeded $4.9 million.espn+3

Argentina's Lionel Messi has scored eight goals in five games at the tournament, fueling heavy interest in player scoring props across both prediction platforms and traditional sportsbooks. Anytime goalscorer markets for Messi, Harry Kane, and Erling Haaland were among the most actively traded player-level contracts throughout the quarterfinal round.defirate+2

A Growing Market for World Cup Trading

The overall World Cup winner market on Polymarket and Kalshi has generated more than $28 million in 24-hour trading volume as the tournament narrows toward the semifinals. France, the only remaining unbeaten team after its 2-0 quarterfinal win over Morocco on Thursday, leads the futures market at roughly 38%. Spain, which beat Belgium on Friday, sits second at around 21%.polymarket+1

The quarterfinal stage has amplified the convergence of sports and prediction markets, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket now offering contracts on match outcomes, goal totals, both-teams-to-score props, and individual player performance — a menu that increasingly mirrors traditional sportsbooks.defirate+1