Στα ύψη οι παγκόσμιες τιμές της ζάχαρης: Ρεκόρ 15 μηνών λόγω φόβων για την προσφορά

Sugar prices have rallied sharply in August, with London white sugar hitting a 15-month high above $500 a tonne and US raw sugar breaking above the $16/lb resistance level, as worsening production forecasts across multiple regions point to a deepening global deficit.

Weather and Ethanol Squeeze Supply

The rally has been driven by converging supply threats across the world's largest producing regions. In Brazil, the top global producer, June sugar production in the Center-South fell 26.3% year-over-year to 3.903 million metric tonnes, according to industry group Unica. The country has also raised its mandatory ethanol blending target to 32% in July from 30% in June, diverting more cane juice away from sugar: in June, 58% of Brazil's cane juice went to ethanol production.inkl+1

An El Niño weather pattern that the US Climate Prediction Center said in July could be one of the strongest in more than 75 years is threatening harvests in India and Thailand. India's monsoon rainfall was 12% below normal as of August 13, and the country's Earth Science Ministry has warned this could be the weakest monsoon in 11 years. In Europe, drought and extreme heat have cut the EU and UK sugar production outlook to 14.98 million tonnes, the lowest in 11 years.inkl

Deficit Forecasts Widen

Multiple forecasters have revised their outlooks toward larger deficits. Green Pool Commodity Specialists on July 29 raised its global 2026/27 sugar deficit estimate to 3.3 million tonnes from a June estimate of 1.76 million tonnes. StoneX raised its deficit forecast to 1.7 million tonnes from a May estimate of 550,000 tonnes. Czapp, in an analysis published August 13, now projects a 0.9-million-tonne deficit for 2026/27, deepening to 2.9 million tonnes in 2027/28 as lower cane and beet availability reduces output in India, the EU, and Thailand.czapp+1

Bloomberg reported Friday that white sugar futures in London were headed for a third straight weekly gain, boosting refining margins. Indian sugar stocks including Balrampur Chini Mills and Triveni Engineering rallied as much as 12% over two days as domestic sugar prices hit a seven-year high.bloomberg+1

India's Export Absence Adds Pressure

India, which exported an average of 6.8 million tonnes annually through the 2022-23 season, banned sugar shipments until September 30 after exporting only around 800,000 tonnes this season, according to Reuters as cited by the Economic Times. Government sources suggest lower cane availability and rising ethanol demand will leave little surplus for exports for several years, removing a key balancing supplier from global trade flows.economictimes