El Niño hits record strength, Japan weather agency says

El Niño reached its highest strength on record in September, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Friday. The agency said there is a 100% chance the conditions will last through the Northern Hemisphere winter. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific region the agency monitors ran 4.0C (7.2F) above normal. That is the highest reading since records began in 1949, and it beats the previous peak of 3.7C set in December 1997.unn+2

The bulletin came a day after the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said El Niño is set to be the most intense ever recorded. The weather pattern is already disrupting harvests and economies on several continents.japantimes+1

A record months ahead of the peak

The new reading continues a steady climb. In August, the agency recorded an anomaly of 3.4C in its NINO.3 monitoring region, beating the August record of 3.0C from 1997. At that time, it expected temperatures to keep rising until winter. In September, Britain's Met Office said the event had already passed previous records, with several weeks still to go before its peak.data.jma+1

In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, released Thursday, the WMO said there is a near-100% chance El Niño will last through February 2027, with a peak expected around December. For October through December, the agency expects the anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region to reach about 3.7C above normal. The record for that region is 2.6C, set in late 2015 and early 2016. The Niño 3.4 region overlaps with the Niño 3 zone that Japan tracks but lies to its west.tribune+1

"El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly," said Celeste Saulo, the WMO's secretary-general. She added that the ocean feeding the event is "the warmest we've ever measured it".tribune

Industries already feeling it

Bloomberg reported that the event is upending key economic regions months before it peaks. It is bringing heat and unusually dry or wet conditions. El Niño has contributed to India's weakest monsoon in more than a decade and made wildfires in Indonesia worse, with the smoke reaching Singapore and Malaysia. It has also put sugar and coffee output in Brazil at risk. Economists have warned that this "super" El Niño could push up global food prices in a shock that lasts until 2028.bloomberg+2

The WMO expects drier-than-normal conditions across the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America and northwestern South America. It expects wetter weather in the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of East Asia and southeastern South America.tribune

The event could also push global temperatures higher. Many record-hot years, including 1998, 2016, 2023 and 2024, followed major El Niño events or came alongside them. According to Saulo, El Niño does not add heat to the planet. Instead, it releases heat already stored in the ocean.japantimes+1