Counterpoint expects Apple to sell 6M foldable iPhones

Counterpoint Research expects Apple ↘ 1.11% to sell roughly 6 million units of the iPhone Duo this year, marking the first formal analyst estimate for the company's inaugural foldable smartphone. The projection, first reported by Bloomberg on Wednesday, comes with a key caveat: whether Apple can ramp up production fast enough to meet demand.bloomberg

A Bold Price Point

Priced at $1,999 for the base model — about $100 above Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold8 — the iPhone Duo sits at the top of Apple's lineup and carries broad industry hopes for reinvigorating the foldable segment. Storage upgrades can push the price as high as $3,199, though carrier financing plans bring the monthly cost down considerably.247wallst+1

"Apple's pricing was one of the most impressive parts of the launch," said Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint Research. "Keeping the iPhone Duo just under the $2,000 mark looks like a pretty bold move, especially for a first-generation foldable." Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam told Bloomberg that the 6 million figure represents the upper end and hinges on production capacity.thenationalnews+1

Pre-orders are set to begin on October 16, with sales starting October 23. IDC estimates foldables will grow 13% to 22.9 million units shipped this year largely because of Apple's entry — without the iPhone Duo, the segment would have declined. The National reported that worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to fall 16.7% this year, yet the foldables category is projected to grow 12.6%.bloomberg+2

iPhone 18 Pro Off to a Fast Start in China

Separately, Counterpoint reported that Apple's iPhone 18 Pro series saw a 12% year-over-year sales increase in China during its first week of availability, helping Apple capture 33% of the country's smartphone market in Week 38 — despite the Pro models being on sale for only the final three days of that period. The strong showing came as Apple released its Pro models without a corresponding base-model iPhone 18, steering upgraders toward the pricier devices.investing+1

The result bucked a broader downturn in China's smartphone market, where weekly sales have fallen at double-digit rates since July. Price increases of more than $200 on many Chinese flagship models may have strengthened the iPhone's relative value, Lam noted.bloomberg+1

Premium Strategy Paying Off

The Duo and Pro launches fit a broader pattern of Apple pushing customers toward higher-priced devices. An Evercore ISI survey of nearly 4,000 U.S. consumers found that 67% cited the age of their current iPhone as their top reason to upgrade, while the Pro and Pro Max together represented 53% of intended purchases. In Apple's most recent quarter, iPhone revenue reached $54 billion — up 22% year over year — driven primarily by Pro model sales.247wallst+1