China’s Q3 CO2 falls 3.1%, most since Covid, CREA finds

China's carbon dioxide emissions fell 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026. It was the largest quarterly decline since the 2022 Covid lockdowns, according to new analysis for Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The drop means China's emissions have fallen by an estimated 0.5% so far this year. It extends a "flat or falling" trend that started in March 2024.carbonbrief.org

The analysis is based on official figures and commercial data. It found that coal use fell 3% and oil use fell 4% in the quarter. Bloomberg reported that expensive fuel and mild weather added to the effects of the country's clean energy push.bloomberg.com

Oil shock speeds up electrification

Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has cut oil shipments to China, the world's largest crude importer, AFP reported via Arab News. Oil used for transport fell 9% year-on-year. Electric vehicles made up a record 67% of passenger car sales and 50% of heavy truck sales in September, according to the analysis. Electricity used by EVs rose 53%, which suggests drivers are using existing EVs more in place of fuel-burning vehicles.arabnews.com+1

"It's clear there is going to be some kind of a rebound in oil consumption once, or if, prices come down," Myllyvirta told AFP. He added that China's oil use had "highly likely peaked before the shock," and that "the shock has clearly accelerated the electrification trend and the shift away from oil."arabnews.com

Coal power slides as clean energy grows

Coal power generation fell 3.3% in the quarter. Solar, wind and nuclear output rose by 110 terawatt hours, more than twice the growth in total electricity demand, Carbon Brief reported. China is still building new coal plants at near-record rates, so average running hours at those plants are falling and eating into their profits. Growth in the coal-to-chemicals industry also slowed. Emissions from cement and steel kept falling as construction shrank.carbonbrief.org

Mild weather reduced the need for coal-fired power to run air conditioners, Bloomberg noted. China's energy authority said coal's share of power generation fell below 50% for the first time in the first half of the year, according to Swiss outlet Bluewin.bluewin.ch+1

Outlook ahead of COP31

Myllyvirta expects clean power growth to outpace energy demand growth this year, which would keep fossil fuel use in structural decline. He said this also depends on removing the barriers that cause wind and solar power to be wasted rather than used. He noted that mild weather only partly explains the recent slowdown in demand, and weaker GDP growth is another factor.

The findings come just before the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, Bluewin reported. China is the world's largest emitter, responsible for more than 30% of global greenhouse gases, and it aims to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. "Coal power sustaining a downward trend is a key factor in the further development of renewable energy," said Gao Yuhe of Greenpeace East Asia, according to AFP.bluewin.ch+1