China-US trade rebounds in Q2 after first-quarter slump

China-US goods trade totaled 2 trillion yuan ($294.1 billion) in the first half of 2026, with second-quarter trade growing 13.7 percent year-on-year after an 18.7 percent slump in the first quarter, according to data released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs (GAC). The rebound underscores the resilience of bilateral commerce under the trade truce struck by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in October 2025.globaltimes+1

Trade Truce Holds Amid New Probes

The recovery came against a backdrop of new U.S. trade actions. In March, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative launched Section 301 investigations targeting excess manufacturing capacity across 16 economies including China, covering sectors from semiconductors to solar modules. In June, USTR announced a new government-to-government mechanism — a U.S.-China Board of Trade — to manage bilateral commerce on an ongoing basis and invited public comment on potential tariff modifications.cnbc+2

China's Ministry of Commerce said both sides have agreed to establish the Board of Trade, under which reciprocal tariff reductions would be discussed. Analysts say the ongoing probes are unlikely to derail momentum ahead of Xi's planned state visit to the United States on September 24, which Trump announced from the White House on July 6.kfiam640.iheart+2

Broader Trade Picture

The bilateral figures sit within a broader surge in Chinese trade. Total foreign trade reached 25.47 trillion yuan in the first half, up 16.9 percent year-on-year, with imports jumping 22.1 percent — outpacing export growth of 13.4 percent. GAC Vice Minister Wang Jun attributed the export strength to global demand for AI-related components and green products, with exports of electric vehicles rising 68.7 percent and lithium batteries up 37.6 percent.english.scio+1

Summit Expectations

The October 2025 Busan summit produced a one-year tactical truce that reduced the U.S. fentanyl-related tariff on China from 20 percent to 10 percent and extended a reprieve on reciprocal tariffs. Trump visited Beijing in May for talks with Xi, after which he formally invited the Chinese leader to Washington. That truce is set to expire on November 10, making the September summit a critical juncture for determining whether the current detente will be extended or renegotiated.privatebanking.hsbc+4