Carney says he prepared for risk of U.S. military action against Canada

Prime Minister Mark Carney disclosed in a New York Times The New York Times Company ↗ 2.07% interview published Wednesday that he has spent the past year preparing for the possibility of U.S.-led military action against Canada, describing it as an "extreme tail risk" that would be irresponsible to ignore.cbc+1

"I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk," Carney told the Times. "That's just risk management. That's not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to" prepare.cbc

The remarks, delivered at the newspaper's Midtown Manhattan office during the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, mark the first time Carney has publicly acknowledged studying the scenario. He declined to discuss specifics of what the examination involved.nytimes+1

A Trade War With No End in Sight

The disclosure comes as Canada and the United States are locked in their most damaging trade conflict in generations. After trade negotiations collapsed in mid-August, Trump imposed 50 percent duties on roughly $28 billion in Canadian goods. Canada retaliated on September 8 with tariffs on about $20 billion worth of American products, including steel, dairy, appliances and electronics, at rates of 15, 25 and 50 percent.npr+2

Beyond tariffs, Carney laid out a broader strategy to reduce Canada's dependence on the United States, discussing plans to find alternatives to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet service and reviewing Canada's procurement of 88 American-made F-35 fighter jets. The F-35 contract review, launched more than a year ago, remains ongoing, with Ottawa exploring options including the Swedish-made Gripen.cbc+2

Despite the tensions, Carney told the Times he and Trump speak "frequently," even after trade talks collapsed. Trump, who has repeatedly called Canada the "51st state" and referred to Carney as "governor," said on social media earlier Wednesday that Canada is "destroying itself".nytimes+2

Military Scenarios and International Reactions

The Globe and Mail reported in January that the Canadian Armed Forces have modeled a hypothetical U.S. invasion, the first such exercise in a century. Senior government sources said military planners expect American forces could overcome Canada's defenses within days, leading the military to envision unconventional warfare tactics including ambushes, sabotage and drone strikes.theglobeandmail

Iran's Foreign Ministry weighed in Wednesday, with spokesman Esmail Baqaei criticizing Carney on X for what he called appeasing Washington. "Mark Carney must understand that time is too ruthless to let the shelter of illusion and hypocrisy endure forever," Baqaei wrote, according to Iran's state news agency Tasnim.tasnimnews

Audrey Champoux, deputy director of communications in the Prime Minister's Office, said the PMO had nothing to add to Carney's reported comments.theglobeandmail