Brazil justices reach out to Bolsonaro camp before runoff

Some justices on Brazil's Supreme Court have quietly started reaching out to the political movement they once tried to contain. Flávio Bolsonaro could win the presidency in the October 25 runoff, and he may also gain enough Senate support to impeach members of the court, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the discussions. Recent rulings and meetings have been read as conciliatory gestures toward a movement that has long treated the court as an enemy.bloomberg.com

Gestures from the bench

Justice Alexandre de Moraes eased prison conditions for a woman convicted over the January 2023 attacks in Brasília. He also closed investigations into Bolsonaro allies accused of spreading fake news, according to Bloomberg Línea. Justice Gilmar Mendes cited a lack of evidence when he shelved an inquiry into sexual-crime allegations against Alfredo Gaspar, Bolsonaro's running mate. Some justices are betting that Bolsonaro would become more pragmatic in office. He faces two investigations at the court himself, including one over funds from former banker Daniel Vorcaro, the outlet reported.bloomberglinea.com.br

These steps may not be enough. Bolsonaro campaign coordinator Rogério Marinho warned Chief Justice Edson Fachin this month that the new Senate would make it very hard to stop an attempt to impeach Moraes. Two pro-Bolsonaro senators said even a negotiated exit by Moraes might not satisfy lawmakers, who could then go after Justice Kassio Nunes Marques, according to Bloomberg Línea. The Bolsonaro campaign did not respond to a request for comment.bloomberglinea.com.br

Senate math

Bolsonaro's Liberal Party won 19 Senate seats in the October 4 first round. That gives it 28 of 81 seats from 2027, Valor International reported. Removing a justice takes 54 votes. A survey by Estadão counts 49 senators in favor of impeachment, five short of that threshold. Reuters reported that Bolsonaro's coalition could reach 50 senators, with the remaining votes possibly coming from unaligned members. Incoming senator Marcel van Hattem said Moraes's impeachment "will happen regardless of who is elected president," Poder360 reported.valorinternational.globo.com+3

Moraes oversaw the case that led to Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year sentence for plotting a coup. He is now under scrutiny himself over alleged ties to Vorcaro, which leaves him unusually exposed, Bloomberg Línea noted.bloomberglinea.com.br

A tight race

The runoff is still close. A Datafolha poll showed Bolsonaro's lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowing to 47% to 45%, within the margin of error, Reuters reported. Liberal Party leader Valdemar Costa Neto suggested the stakes depend on the outcome. "If [President] Lula is reelected, those proceedings won't go anywhere," he said, according to Valor International.reuters.com+1