Bitcoin holds near $78,000 ahead of expected Fed rate hike

Bitcoin ↘ 1.94% traded near $78,000 on Monday, gaining roughly 1.2% on the day as traders positioned for a pivotal week dominated by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and a Senate vote on crypto regulation.

Fed Hike All but Certain

The FOMC meets September 15–16 with markets pricing in roughly an 85% to 90% chance of a quarter-point rate increase, according to CME FedWatch data. If delivered, it would lift the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75% to 4%, the first hike since 2023. Goldman Sachs ↘ 3.96%, J.P. Morgan, HSBC ↘ 1.29%, and Deutsche Bank ↘ 2.74% have all forecast the move after hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index data released September 10 pushed hike odds sharply higher.cbsnews+1

Bitcoin outperformed weakening technology shares on Monday, with AI-linked stocks under pressure after industry leaders renewed calls for slower development. Still, the cryptocurrency remains well below its early-September high near $82,000 and is struggling to reclaim the $80,000–$82,000 resistance zone. Analysts highlighted support around $76,800, with a stronger floor between $72,000 and $74,000.proactiveinvestors

Derivatives Markets Deleverage

Bitcoin's open interest dropped roughly 14% ahead of the week's events, part of a broader deleveraging pattern across derivatives markets throughout 2026. On September 12, futures open interest fell by approximately 13,600 BTC — about $1.05 billion in notional value — in a single 24-hour window after the CPI release rattled risk-asset positioning. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. has pointed to the contraction as evidence of a deliberate shift toward spot trading, with spot demand absorbing selling pressure and reducing the risk of liquidation cascades.cryptobriefing

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined outflows of roughly $463 million in the four trading sessions through September 11, a reversal from $3.34 billion in inflows between August 19 and September 4.coingabbar+1

CLARITY Act Adds a Second Catalyst

The Senate is scheduled to hold a cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, September 15. The bill, which would divide crypto oversight between the SEC and the CFTC, needs 60 votes to advance to full debate. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning at least seven Democratic votes are required. Prediction markets on Kalshi price the odds of full enactment this year at roughly 20% to 25%. If cloture fails, lawmakers involved in drafting the bill have warned that comprehensive federal crypto rules could slip to 2027.cryptonews+3

Reuters reported that Bitcoin investors remain broadly bullish on the price toward year-end, even as the twin tests of monetary policy and legislation loom over the market this week.reuters