Gold surges past $4,350 after U.S. economy sheds jobs in July

Gold surged past $4,350 an ounce on Friday after the U.S. economy unexpectedly shed jobs in July, delivering a dramatic miss that slashed expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes and sent investors rushing into the precious metal.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, the first monthly decline in more than a year and far below the roughly 85,000 gain economists had forecast. The weak print followed June's already tepid gain of 57,000 and an ADP private payrolls reading earlier in the week that showed only 44,000 jobs added.tradingeconomics+2

Spot gold was last trading above $4,326, up more than 2% on the day and over 7% for the week, according to Reuters ↗ 2.66%, putting it on track for its strongest weekly performance since January 2026. The rally marks a sharp reversal from the start of the week, when bullion traded near $4,030.investorsking+1

Rate Hike Bets Evaporate

The payrolls shock reshaped expectations for the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Traders had assigned a 55% probability to a rate hike heading into the data; futures markets responded by pricing in just one more increase for the remainder of the year, down from two a week earlier.profit.pakistantoday+1

The shift in rate expectations lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at StoneX, said $4,000 has proven to be a solid support level and that "price action has spoken, and gold looks like it wants to rally" toward $4,600.businesstimes

Not all Fed officials share the market's dovish interpretation. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said this week she remains ready to raise rates if inflation fails to cool, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem cautioned that policymakers "cannot afford to tolerate persistently high inflation".investing

Falling Oil and Hormuz Diplomacy Ease Inflation Fears

Falling crude oil prices provided additional tailwinds. Brent crude shed roughly 7% this week after Iran and Oman agreed on a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower energy costs ease inflation concerns and reduce pressure on the Fed to maintain restrictive policy.ad-hoc-news+1

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters he believed the conflict with Iran would end soon, though fresh attacks by Iran-aligned groups have reminded investors that risks to global energy supplies remain.profit.pakistantoday

Silver climbed more than 3% to above $63 an ounce, while platinum rose 1.5% and palladium gained modestly, with all three metals heading for weekly advances. Chinese demand continued to underpin the complex, with gold-backed exchange-traded funds in China recording 14 consecutive sessions of inflows.investing+1

Tony Sycamore, senior market analyst at IG, said maintaining prices above the late-June low near $3,942 strengthens the case for the rally to extend toward the 200-day moving average near $4,489.investing