Super El Niño could push temperatures past 2C for first time in early 2027

A rapidly intensifying El Niño in the tropical Pacific — already one of the fastest-developing events in the observational record — has raised the prospect that a single month in early 2027 could see global average temperatures breach 2°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, according to projections from the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science reported by Bloomberg on Monday.economictimes

The projections estimate a 35–40% probability that at least one month in early 2027 will cross the 2°C mark, with the odds rising sharply in recent weeks as meteorologists have upgraded their El Niño forecasts.economictimes

A Record-Breaking Pace

The Niño3.4 index — the standard measure of El Niño strength in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific — crossed the 2°C "super" El Niño threshold in the first weeks of July, a pace that outstrips every prior event in the modern record. The Columbia University IRI forecast center reported the latest weekly index value reached 2.1°C as of mid-July.carbonbrief+1

Carbon Brief's analysis of 667 model runs from 14 forecasting groups found that 91% project the event will peak above the strongest El Niño in history, which occurred in 2015–16. The median forecast suggests sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region could peak near 3.6°C above normal between July and December, far exceeding the prior record of approximately 2.75°C.carbonbrief

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center placed a 63% probability on a "very strong" El Niño during November–January, ranking it among the largest since records began in 1950, with a 97% chance the event persists through early spring 2027.cpc.ncep.noaa

What It Means for Global Temperatures

Carbon Brief's extended projection gives 2027 a 92% chance of setting a new global temperature record, with a best estimate of around 1.71°C above pre-industrial levels — nearly 0.2°C above 2024's current record. The year also carries a 94% chance of exceeding 1.5°C, the aspirational limit set by the Paris Agreement.carbonbrief

Ben Kirtman, dean of the Rosenstiel School and a leading climate modeler, is behind the projections suggesting the 2°C monthly threshold could be crossed. The underlying acceleration of long-term warming — now running at about 0.27°C per decade, up from 0.18°C in the early 2000s — compounds the El Niño's temporary boost.eurekalert+2

Economic Toll

The African Development Bank has warned the super El Niño will inflict a $10 billion to $20 billion economic hit across affected African nations. Anthony Nyong, the AfDB's director for climate change and green growth, told Reuters the event could reduce heavily affected countries' GDP by 1–2% on average, triggering mass migration from drought-stricken areas.reuters

"Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries' GDP by 1% to 2% on average," Nyong said, adding that Africa's adaptation finance needs have risen to $100 billion for the year.reuters