Extreme heat, not lack of rain, now drives Europe’s droughts, study finds

Human-caused climate change is intensifying drought across Europe not by reducing rainfall but by driving extreme heat that evaporates water from soils, lakes, and rivers at unprecedented rates, according to an analysis published Thursday by the World Weather Attribution group.

Heat, Not Missing Rain, Is Drying Out Europe

Scientists from 12 European countries analyzed rainfall trends, soil moisture, and "potential evapotranspiration" — a measure of the atmosphere's capacity to draw moisture from the land — and concluded that extreme heat is turning ordinary dry spells into severe droughts. The study found that agricultural soil droughts in western Europe are now five times more likely because of climate change, while in eastern Europe, where dry conditions have persisted for six months, they are 11 times more likely. Evaporative demand capable of driving such intense conditions is approximately 80 times more likely in western Europe and 40 times more likely in eastern Europe compared to pre-industrial times.Euronews.com+1

"Europe's climate is shifting fast," said Dr. Sarah Kew, a climate scientist at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. "While rain patterns remain mixed, our findings show that extreme heat is taking over as the primary driver of drought on our continent".Euronews.com

A Continent Already in Crisis

The findings arrive as France heads for its worst maize harvest in 50 years, Romania has lost more than a million hectares of crops, and rivers across the continent run so low that shipping lanes are disrupted and energy production is under strain. According to Reuters, countries including Romania and Greece have seen farming, shipping, and industry disrupted by low water levels.104.1 WIKY | Adult Contemporary Radio+2

Dr. Dominik Schumacher, from ETH Zurich's Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, said the pattern marks a fundamental shift in how European droughts form. "As temperatures climb, the atmosphere's thirst increases quickly, sucking moisture out of rivers, lakes, reservoirs and the soil," he said.Euronews.com

Rising Temperatures Mean Worsening Risk

Europe is the world's fastest-warming continent, and the Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that June 2026 was the hottest on record for western Europe. The WWA study warned that at current warming of 1.4°C, conditions are already extreme — and if emissions push temperatures to 2.8°C, intense evaporative conditions could double in likelihood.CopernicusECMWF+1

"Scorching, dry summers" will become a yearly occurrence in Europe without swift emissions cuts, warned Dr. Mariam Zachariah of Imperial College London. UN Climate Change executive secretary Simon Stiell called the findings "an unignorable red alert that our planet is overheating".Euronews.com