IEA, IMF, World Bank, WTO warn Middle East war strains energy supplies

The heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group, and World Trade Organization issued a new joint statement on Wednesday declaring that the global economy has been "broadly resilient" to the shock from the war in the Middle East, while warning of continued risks to energy supplies and vulnerable nations.tradingview+2

Resilience Amid Disruption

The statement, released July 8, marks the latest in a series of coordinated communications from the four institutions since they established a high-level coordination group in April to respond to the conflict's energy, trade, and economic impacts. The IMF is forecasting that global growth will drop to 3 percent in 2026 from 3.5 percent in 2025 as a result of the war, before rebounding to 3.4 percent in 2027, according to Reuters.worldbank+2

The institutions have warned that the war is placing "substantial and uneven strain" on global energy supplies, food security, and economic activity, with effects falling hardest on the most vulnerable countries through higher fuel and fertilizer prices, greater uncertainty, and risks to jobs.balticwind

Energy Supply Concerns

A central concern highlighted by the agencies is the rapid drawdown of global oil inventories following the major loss of supply through the Strait of Hormuz. The institutions cautioned that if shipping flows do not return to normal, continued rapid depletion of oil stocks ahead of peak summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere would present increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions, and broader economic resilience.balticwind

Rising fertilizer costs were flagged as a particular worry as many countries enter the planting season. The four organizations pledged to monitor fertilizer supply chains and energy developments closely, track government policy responses, and coordinate support for affected countries.balticwind

Building on Months of Coordination

The July 8 statement builds on previous joint communications issued on April 1, April 13, and May 29, reflecting an escalating institutional response to the crisis. The April coordination group initially comprised only the IEA, IMF, and World Bank Group, with the WTO joining by the time of the May 29 statement to address the conflict's trade dimensions.imf+3

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva posted about the statement on social media shortly after its release.x