Berkeley Earth gives 2026 95% odds of record heat

Berkeley Earth, the independent US research group, told BBC News that with two months of the year left, it is 95% confident 2026 will beat the global temperature record set in 2024. The forecast came as negotiators gathered in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday, November 9, for the opening of the COP31 UN climate summit. Other major monitoring agencies are less certain about the record, but they agree that warming from climate change and a strengthening El Niño is driving temperatures higher.bbc.com

"We have had a run of record warm years," Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth told the BBC. "That is what we expect as global warming progresses… glaciers collapsing, record-breaking heatwaves and droughts." He added that there is "potential for much larger and much more dramatic changes down the line."bbc.com

Record October

On Friday, November 6, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service said October 2026 was the warmest October on record, with an average surface air temperature of 15.35°C. That is 0.90°C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels. It was the third month in a row above the 1.5°C threshold, and sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions also reached a record high for October. Copernicus said 2026 is "virtually certain" to become the second calendar year after 2024 to go above 1.5°C.climate.copernicus.eu+2

Copernicus is more cautious than Berkeley Earth about the annual record, though. Its statistical model gives 2026 an 80% chance of finishing second behind 2024 and a 20% chance of tying or beating it.lemonde.fr

WMO's more cautious view

The World Meteorological Organization released its State of the Climate update on COP31's opening day. It said 2026 is on track to be one of the four warmest years on record, with the global average temperature for January through September about 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 average. The report uses data only up to September, so it does not capture the latest effects of El Niño. The WMO also said El Niño is near certain to persist until at least February 2027, which would mean little relief next year.wmo.int+1

"The past 12 years have been the warmest on record," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement. She said the findings give "new meaning to the phrase off the charts," according to the BBC. Saulo explained that El Niño "doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured."wmo.int+1

Pressure on COP31

The summit runs through November 20. The BBC reports the world is on track for about 2.8°C of warming by 2100, well past the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5°C. Turkey, the host, wants talks to focus on a new electrification target, but the EU is resisting any goal that would let countries meet it using gas, according to the BBC.public.wmo.int+1

UN climate chief Simon Stiell was expected to tell delegates that "no single COP is a silver bullet," while adding that "global heating is already costing the Earth."